Market icon

2025年第四季度日本GDP增长情况如何?

Market icon

2025年第四季度日本GDP增长情况如何?

0.1–0.3% 100.0%

≤0.0% <1%

0.4–0.6% <1%

0.7–0.9% <1%

Polymarket

$39,951 交易量

0.1–0.3% 100.0%

≤0.0% <1%

0.4–0.6% <1%

0.7–0.9% <1%

Polymarket

$39,951 交易量

≤0.0%

$2,714 交易量

0.1–0.3%

$7,233 交易量

0.4–0.6%

$1,214 交易量

0.7–0.9%

$2,913 交易量

1.0–1.2%

$1,142 交易量

1.3–1.5%

$10,943 交易量

1.6%以上

$13,792 交易量

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the fourth quarter of 2025, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for release on February 16, 2026.

The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’ in the row ‘Gross Domestic Product’ and the first column labeled ‘10-12’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
交易量
$39,951
结束日期
Feb 16, 2026
市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:01 PM ET
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the fourth quarter of 2025, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for release on February 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’ in the row ‘Gross Domestic Product’ and the first column labeled ‘10-12’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

已提议结果: 否

无争议

最终结果: 否

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2025年第四季度日本GDP增长情况如何?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0.1–0.3%" at 100%, followed by "≤0.0%" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2025年第四季度日本GDP增长情况如何?" has generated $40K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2025年第四季度日本GDP增长情况如何?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2025年第四季度日本GDP增长情况如何?" is "0.1–0.3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "≤0.0%" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2025年第四季度日本GDP增长情况如何?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.