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世界·全球选举

日本大选：自民党席位获胜幅度？

Market icon
世界·全球选举

日本大选：自民党席位获胜幅度？

自民党250+ 100.0%

自民党 <130 <1%

自民党130-159 <1%

自民党160-189 <1%

Polymarket

$101,594 交易量

自民党250+ 100.0%

自民党 <130 <1%

自民党130-159 <1%

自民党160-189 <1%

Polymarket

$101,594 交易量

自民党 <130

$15,735 交易量

否

自民党130-159

$19,360 交易量

否

自民党160-189

$7,268 交易量

否

自民党190-219

$12,252 交易量

否

自民党220-249

$13,680 交易量

否

自民党250+

$28,568 交易量

是

其他政党获胜

$4,731 交易量

否

This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election (e.g. if LDP controls 290 and CRA controls 70 as a result of the election, the difference would be 220).

The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election.

If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”

If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).
交易量
$101,594
结束日期
Feb 8, 2026
市场开放时间
Feb 5, 2026, 7:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election (e.g. if LDP controls 290 and CRA controls 70 as a result of the election, the difference would be 220). The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).

已提议结果: 否

无争议

最终结果: 否

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"日本大选：自民党席位获胜幅度？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 7 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"自民党250+"，概率为 100%，其次是"自民党 <130"，概率为 0%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"日本大选：自民党席位获胜幅度？"已产生 $101.6K 的总交易量（自Feb 6, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"日本大选：自民党席位获胜幅度？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 7 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"日本大选：自民党席位获胜幅度？"的当前领先者是"自民党250+"，概率为 100%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"自民党 <130"，概率为 0%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"日本大选：自民党席位获胜幅度？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。