Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting January's flat monthly output from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and subdued three-month trends extending Q4 2025's meager 0.1% quarter-on-quarter gain. Recent drivers include rising unemployment to 5.2% in the quarter to January, weak March flash composite PMI at 51.0 signaling flat activity, and the Office for Budget Responsibility's March downgrade to 1.1% full-year growth amid cyclical weakness and softer labor conditions. Bank of England minutes noted Q1 subdued activity, with higher probabilities on 0.6-0.9% (24%) and 0.3-0.6% (23%) outcomes balancing modest services resilience against construction declines; watch February monthly GDP release in early April ahead of the Q1 flash estimate late April.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於0.0-0.3% 54%
0.9-1.2% 20.1%
0.3-0.6% 19.3%
0.6-0.9% 18.1%
$16,661 交易量
$16,661 交易量
May 14, 2026
負數
4%
0.0-0.3%
52%
0.3-0.6%
23%
0.6-0.9%
22%
0.9-1.2%
20%
1.2-1.5%
1%
1.5-1.8%
1%
1.8%以上
2%
0.0-0.3% 54%
0.9-1.2% 20.1%
0.3-0.6% 19.3%
0.6-0.9% 18.1%
$16,661 交易量
$16,661 交易量
May 14, 2026
負數
$0 交易量
4%
0.0-0.3%
$8,742 交易量
52%
0.3-0.6%
$550 交易量
23%
0.6-0.9%
$6,679 交易量
22%
0.9-1.2%
$0 交易量
20%
1.2-1.5%
$0 交易量
1%
1.5-1.8%
$0 交易量
1%
1.8%以上
$690 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting January's flat monthly output from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and subdued three-month trends extending Q4 2025's meager 0.1% quarter-on-quarter gain. Recent drivers include rising unemployment to 5.2% in the quarter to January, weak March flash composite PMI at 51.0 signaling flat activity, and the Office for Budget Responsibility's March downgrade to 1.1% full-year growth amid cyclical weakness and softer labor conditions. Bank of England minutes noted Q1 subdued activity, with higher probabilities on 0.6-0.9% (24%) and 0.3-0.6% (23%) outcomes balancing modest services resilience against construction declines; watch February monthly GDP release in early April ahead of the Q1 flash estimate late April.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
交易量
$16,661結束日期
May 14, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting January's flat monthly output from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and subdued three-month trends extending Q4 2025's meager 0.1% quarter-on-quarter gain. Recent drivers include rising unemployment to 5.2% in the quarter to January, weak March flash composite PMI at 51.0 signaling flat activity, and the Office for Budget Responsibility's March downgrade to 1.1% full-year growth amid cyclical weakness and softer labor conditions. Bank of England minutes noted Q1 subdued activity, with higher probabilities on 0.6-0.9% (24%) and 0.3-0.6% (23%) outcomes balancing modest services resilience against construction declines; watch February monthly GDP release in early April ahead of the Q1 flash estimate late April.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$16,661結束日期
May 14, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting January's flat monthly output from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and subdued three-month trends extending Q4 2025's meager 0.1% quarter-on-quarter gain. Recent drivers include rising unemployment to 5.2% in the quarter to January, weak March flash composite PMI at 51.0 signaling flat activity, and the Office for Budget Responsibility's March downgrade to 1.1% full-year growth amid cyclical weakness and softer labor conditions. Bank of England minutes noted Q1 subdued activity, with higher probabilities on 0.6-0.9% (24%) and 0.3-0.6% (23%) outcomes balancing modest services resilience against construction declines; watch February monthly GDP release in early April ahead of the Q1 flash estimate late April.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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