Trader sentiment on South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation clusters tightly around 3.2-5.0% ranges, with 4.7-5.0% (27.5%) edging out 3.5-3.8% (27.1%) amid SARB’s baseline forecast of 4.5% by late 2026, reflecting the 3-6% target midpoint. Recent August CPI at 4.7% yoy and core at 4.2%—down from peaks—bolster moderate odds, but upside risks from Eskom tariff hikes (projected 36% in 2025), rand volatility near R17.50/USD, and food pressures differentiate higher bins like >5.0% (18.9%). Downside bets on 2.6-3.5% hinge on GNU policy stability curbing load-shedding and global disinflation spillovers. Key watch: November SARB rate decision and February budget for fiscal signals, with market-implied odds implying 65% chance within 3.5-5.0%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4.1-4.4% 32%
4.7-5.0% 28%
3.5-3.8% 27.0%
3.2-3.5% 26.9%
低於2.6%
4%
2.6-2.9%
10%
2.9-3.2%
16%
3.2-3.5%
27%
3.5-3.8%
27%
3.8-4.1%
22%
4.1-4.4%
22%
4.4-4.7%
20%
4.7-5.0%
28%
>5.0%
19%
4.1-4.4% 32%
4.7-5.0% 28%
3.5-3.8% 27.0%
3.2-3.5% 26.9%
低於2.6%
4%
2.6-2.9%
10%
2.9-3.2%
16%
3.2-3.5%
27%
3.5-3.8%
27%
3.8-4.1%
22%
4.1-4.4%
22%
4.4-4.7%
20%
4.7-5.0%
28%
>5.0%
19%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
市場開放時間: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation clusters tightly around 3.2-5.0% ranges, with 4.7-5.0% (27.5%) edging out 3.5-3.8% (27.1%) amid SARB’s baseline forecast of 4.5% by late 2026, reflecting the 3-6% target midpoint. Recent August CPI at 4.7% yoy and core at 4.2%—down from peaks—bolster moderate odds, but upside risks from Eskom tariff hikes (projected 36% in 2025), rand volatility near R17.50/USD, and food pressures differentiate higher bins like >5.0% (18.9%). Downside bets on 2.6-3.5% hinge on GNU policy stability curbing load-shedding and global disinflation spillovers. Key watch: November SARB rate decision and February budget for fiscal signals, with market-implied odds implying 65% chance within 3.5-5.0%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions