Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth in a razor-thin contest, with 0.9–1.1% (35.5%) narrowly edging 0.0–0.2% (35.0%) and contraction ≤-0.4% (32.5%), reflecting mixed high-frequency indicators as the quarter closes. Robust January industrial production (+4.3% m/m) and February factory output (+2.5% m/m) fueled upside hopes for exports amid yen weakening past 160/USD, but March manufacturing PMI softened to 51.4 from 53.0, signaling fading momentum, while retail sales rose just 1.4% y/y versus 2.0% expected, highlighting fragile private consumption (over 50% of GDP). Bank of Japan March assessments affirm moderate growth, yet stagflation risks linger; final March data and May's advance GDP release will prove decisive swing factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於0.6–0.8% 29%
≤-0.4% 9%
0.3–0.5% 9%
1.2%以上 8%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
29%
-0.3– -0.1%
20%
0.0–0.2%
37%
0.3–0.5%
14%
0.6–0.8%
29%
0.9–1.1%
35%
1.2%以上
8%
0.6–0.8% 29%
≤-0.4% 9%
0.3–0.5% 9%
1.2%以上 8%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$114 交易量
29%
-0.3– -0.1%
$7 交易量
20%
0.0–0.2%
$61 交易量
37%
0.3–0.5%
$26 交易量
14%
0.6–0.8%
$12 交易量
29%
0.9–1.1%
$15 交易量
35%
1.2%以上
$22 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth in a razor-thin contest, with 0.9–1.1% (35.5%) narrowly edging 0.0–0.2% (35.0%) and contraction ≤-0.4% (32.5%), reflecting mixed high-frequency indicators as the quarter closes. Robust January industrial production (+4.3% m/m) and February factory output (+2.5% m/m) fueled upside hopes for exports amid yen weakening past 160/USD, but March manufacturing PMI softened to 51.4 from 53.0, signaling fading momentum, while retail sales rose just 1.4% y/y versus 2.0% expected, highlighting fragile private consumption (over 50% of GDP). Bank of Japan March assessments affirm moderate growth, yet stagflation risks linger; final March data and May's advance GDP release will prove decisive swing factors.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
市場開放時間： Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$257結束日期
May 19, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth in a razor-thin contest, with 0.9–1.1% (35.5%) narrowly edging 0.0–0.2% (35.0%) and contraction ≤-0.4% (32.5%), reflecting mixed high-frequency indicators as the quarter closes. Robust January industrial production (+4.3% m/m) and February factory output (+2.5% m/m) fueled upside hopes for exports amid yen weakening past 160/USD, but March manufacturing PMI softened to 51.4 from 53.0, signaling fading momentum, while retail sales rose just 1.4% y/y versus 2.0% expected, highlighting fragile private consumption (over 50% of GDP). Bank of Japan March assessments affirm moderate growth, yet stagflation risks linger; final March data and May's advance GDP release will prove decisive swing factors.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
交易量
$257結束日期
May 19, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth in a razor-thin contest, with 0.9–1.1% (35.5%) narrowly edging 0.0–0.2% (35.0%) and contraction ≤-0.4% (32.5%), reflecting mixed high-frequency indicators as the quarter closes. Robust January industrial production (+4.3% m/m) and February factory output (+2.5% m/m) fueled upside hopes for exports amid yen weakening past 160/USD, but March manufacturing PMI softened to 51.4 from 53.0, signaling fading momentum, while retail sales rose just 1.4% y/y versus 2.0% expected, highlighting fragile private consumption (over 50% of GDP). Bank of Japan March assessments affirm moderate growth, yet stagflation risks linger; final March data and May's advance GDP release will prove decisive swing factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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