2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？

Name: 2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？
Start: 2026-01-16T17:49:39.522Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？

160-179 34%

140-159 28.1%

180-199 20.5%

200次或以上 18%

$176,109 交易量

Dec 31, 2026

少於 100

$0 交易量

<1%

100-119

$1,302 交易量

<1%

120-139

$1,759 交易量

140-159

$25,615 交易量

28%

160-179

$70,478 交易量

34%

180-199

$0 交易量

12%

200次或以上

$76,955 交易量

18%

160-179 34%

140-159 28.1%

180-199 20.5%

200次或以上 18%

$176,109 交易量

Dec 31, 2026

少於 100

$0 交易量

<1%

100-119

$1,302 交易量

<1%

120-139

$1,759 交易量

140-159

$25,615 交易量

28%

160-179

$70,478 交易量

34%

180-199

$0 交易量

12%

200次或以上

$76,955 交易量

18%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 140-179 SpaceX launches in 2026 (62% combined probability for top two bins), driven by the company's accelerating cadence—132 Falcon missions in 2024 alone, fueled by Starlink V2 Mini deployments and reusable booster refurbishment cycles shortening to under 30 days. Projections from SpaceX executives, including Gwynne Shotwell's 170-launch 2025 target, underpin this via linear extrapolation of orbital insertion reliability (99% success rate) and Starlink's demand for 40,000+ satellites. Higher bins (180+) hinge on Starship Block 2 entering routine ops post-Flight 6, enabling 100+ annual flights if rapid reuse and FAA approvals align; lower odds reflect historical regulatory bottlenecks and anomaly risks in high-cadence testing.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 23, 2026, 12:41 PM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "160-179" at 34%, followed by "140-159" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？" has generated $176.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？" is "160-179" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "140-159" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $176.1K traded on “2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 34¢ for "160-179" in the "2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 34% chance that "160-179" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 34¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 66¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？

2026年SpaceX發射了多少次？

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