Market icon
經濟艙·商務

2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？

Market icon
經濟艙·商務

2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？

$180,542 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$180,542 交易量

Polymarket

3.9%

$28,138 交易量

70%

3.8%

$26,253 交易量

46%

3.7%

$20,677 交易量

34%

3.6%

$4,645 交易量

30%

3.5%

$29,843 交易量

19%

3.0%

$0 交易量

12%

2.0%

$214 交易量

8%

1.0%

$39,013 交易量

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield holds steady near 4.31% as of early April 2026, bolstered by March's stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment easing to 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience that curbs aggressive rate-cut bets. The Federal Reserve's March 18 FOMC meeting maintained the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with dot plot projections eyeing low-3% rates by 2027 amid sticky PCE inflation near 2.8% y/y and oil-driven pressures from geopolitical tensions. Yields spiked to 4.48% late March on hawkish repricing before stabilizing, reflecting trader consensus for limited easing. Key catalysts include the April 28-29 FOMC and mid-April CPI release, which could pivot expectations if softening data emerges.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$180,542
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield holds steady near 4.31% as of early April 2026, bolstered by March's stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment easing to 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience that curbs aggressive rate-cut bets. The Federal Reserve's March 18 FOMC meeting maintained the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with dot plot projections eyeing low-3% rates by 2027 amid sticky PCE inflation near 2.8% y/y and oil-driven pressures from geopolitical tensions. Yields spiked to 4.48% late March on hawkish repricing before stabilizing, reflecting trader consensus for limited easing. Key catalysts include the April 28-29 FOMC and mid-April CPI release, which could pivot expectations if softening data emerges.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$180,542
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.0%" at 100%, followed by "3.9%" at 70%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" has generated $180.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" is "4.0%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.9%" at 70%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.