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經濟艙·商務

2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？

Market icon
經濟艙·商務

2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？

$138,482 交易量

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$138,482 交易量

Polymarket

3.9%

$25,171 交易量

64%

3.8%

$26,189 交易量

45%

3.7%

$20,670 交易量

39%

3.6%

$4,645 交易量

32%

3.5%

$29,841 交易量

19%

3.0%

$0 交易量

15%

2.0%

$207 交易量

10%

1.0%

$0 交易量

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.42% as of March 26—up from 4.20% earlier in the month—reflecting trader skepticism on aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts amid sticky inflation. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 for the second straight meeting, with its dot plot forecasting a median 3.4% by end-2026, implying just one 25-basis-point reduction this year. February core PCE inflation hovered near 3.0% annually, bolstered by hotter-than-expected producer prices, while labor market resilience supports a cautious policy stance. Traders eye April CPI data (due mid-month), nonfarm payrolls, and the April 28-29 FOMC for signals on further easing, with market-implied paths suggesting limited dips below 4.2% before 2027.

The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.42% as of March 26—up from 4.20% earlier in the month—reflecting trader skepticism on aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts amid sticky inflation. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 for the second straight meeting, with its dot plot forecasting a median 3.4% by end-2026, implying just one 25-basis-point reduction this year. February core PCE inflation hovered near 3.0% annually, bolstered by hotter-than-expected producer prices, while labor market resilience supports a cautious policy stance. Traders eye April CPI data (due mid-month), nonfarm payrolls, and the April 28-29 FOMC for signals on further easing, with market-implied paths suggesting limited dips below 4.2% before 2027.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.42% as of March 26—up from 4.20% earlier in the month—reflecting trader skepticism on aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts amid sticky inflation. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 for the second straight meeting, with its dot plot forecasting a median 3.4% by end-2026, implying just one 25-basis-point reduction this year. February core PCE inflation hovered near 3.0% annually, bolstered by hotter-than-expected producer prices, while labor market resilience supports a cautious policy stance. Traders eye April CPI data (due mid-month), nonfarm payrolls, and the April 28-29 FOMC for signals on further easing, with market-implied paths suggesting limited dips below 4.2% before 2027.

The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.42% as of March 26—up from 4.20% earlier in the month—reflecting trader skepticism on aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts amid sticky inflation. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 for the second straight meeting, with its dot plot forecasting a median 3.4% by end-2026, implying just one 25-basis-point reduction this year. February core PCE inflation hovered near 3.0% annually, bolstered by hotter-than-expected producer prices, while labor market resilience supports a cautious policy stance. Traders eye April CPI data (due mid-month), nonfarm payrolls, and the April 28-29 FOMC for signals on further easing, with market-implied paths suggesting limited dips below 4.2% before 2027.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.0%" at 100%, followed by "3.9%" at 64%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" has generated $138.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" is "4.0%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.9%" at 64%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.