Official meteorological observations from Beijing's primary weather stations, including those operated by the China Meteorological Administration, recorded a high temperature of exactly 25°C on March 26, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome. This aligns with daily surface measurements under clear skies and moderate winds, consistent with early spring climatology for the region, where average March highs hover around 12–15°C but recent mild air masses from the south pushed readings higher without exceeding 25°C. Model forecasts from the prior week, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, had converged on this peak, validated by post-event satellite and radiosonde data. Barring rare data revisions from quality control audits—such as sensor recalibrations or outlier rejections—challenges to this positioning are negligible, as resolution criteria rely on verified hourly maxima from authoritative stations.