Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (35.5%) and 12°C (31.0%) as Ankara's highest temperature on March 23, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on 11-12°C amid mild spring conditions with partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. The Turkish State Meteorological Service projects a daytime high near 11°C under light northerly winds stabilizing the boundary layer, while slight model divergences—ECMWF cooler at 10.8°C, GFS warmer at 12.2°C—reflect uncertainty in afternoon insolation and urban heat island effects in the capital. Historical March highs average 12°C, but recent cold air advection has tempered optimism for 13°C+, keeping lower outcomes viable given typical 1-2°C forecast errors at 48-hour lead times.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
11°C 36%
12°C 32%
10°C 19%
13°C 9%
$38,052 交易量
$38,052 交易量
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
5%
9°C
7%
10°C
19%
11°C
36%
12°C
32%
13°C
9%
14°C or higher
3%
11°C 36%
12°C 32%
10°C 19%
13°C 9%
$38,052 交易量
$38,052 交易量
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
5%
9°C
7%
10°C
19%
11°C
36%
12°C
32%
13°C
9%
14°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (35.5%) and 12°C (31.0%) as Ankara's highest temperature on March 23, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on 11-12°C amid mild spring conditions with partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. The Turkish State Meteorological Service projects a daytime high near 11°C under light northerly winds stabilizing the boundary layer, while slight model divergences—ECMWF cooler at 10.8°C, GFS warmer at 12.2°C—reflect uncertainty in afternoon insolation and urban heat island effects in the capital. Historical March highs average 12°C, but recent cold air advection has tempered optimism for 13°C+, keeping lower outcomes viable given typical 1-2°C forecast errors at 48-hour lead times.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions