Trader consensus on Polymarket prices gold (GC) June settlement in a tight race between the $4,600-$5,000 (19.5%) and $4,200-$4,600 (18.3%) bins, reflecting balanced bets on sustained upside amid Fed rate cut expectations and USD weakness. Recent drivers include gold's rally past $2,800/oz on persistent inflation signals, central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually, and geopolitical tensions boosting safe-haven demand. Upside differentiation hinges on deeper 2025 cuts (75+ bps implied by futures) or election-driven fiscal stimulus weakening the dollar further, versus hawkish CPI data capping gains near $4,200. Key watch: March FOMC and April nonfarm payrolls, with historical precedents showing gold averaging 15% summer gains in low-rate cycles.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$4,600-$5,000 20%
$4,200-$4,600 18.3%
5,000至5,400美元 14.4%
$3,800-$4,200 12.7%
$429,314 交易量
$429,314 交易量
低於$3,800
9%
$3,800-$4,200
13%
$4,200-$4,600
18%
$4,600-$5,000
20%
5,000至5,400美元
14%
5,400至5,800美元
10%
$5,800-$6,200
9%
高於$6,200
8%
$4,600-$5,000 20%
$4,200-$4,600 18.3%
5,000至5,400美元 14.4%
$3,800-$4,200 12.7%
$429,314 交易量
$429,314 交易量
低於$3,800
9%
$3,800-$4,200
13%
$4,200-$4,600
18%
$4,600-$5,000
20%
5,000至5,400美元
14%
5,400至5,800美元
10%
$5,800-$6,200
9%
高於$6,200
8%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
市場開放時間: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices gold (GC) June settlement in a tight race between the $4,600-$5,000 (19.5%) and $4,200-$4,600 (18.3%) bins, reflecting balanced bets on sustained upside amid Fed rate cut expectations and USD weakness. Recent drivers include gold's rally past $2,800/oz on persistent inflation signals, central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually, and geopolitical tensions boosting safe-haven demand. Upside differentiation hinges on deeper 2025 cuts (75+ bps implied by futures) or election-driven fiscal stimulus weakening the dollar further, versus hawkish CPI data capping gains near $4,200. Key watch: March FOMC and April nonfarm payrolls, with historical precedents showing gold averaging 15% summer gains in low-rate cycles.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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