Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward gold (GC) settling between $4,200-$4,600 (19.7% implied probability) and $4,600-$5,000 (18.5%), reflecting bullish sentiment driven by persistent Fed rate cut expectations amid sticky inflation and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Recent pullback from October's all-time high near $2,800/oz stems from resilient US jobs data bolstering the dollar and Treasury yields, yet central bank buying—led by China—and de-dollarization trends underpin long-term upside. The tight race hinges on December FOMC guidance and Q1 2025 CPI prints; fewer-than-expected cuts could favor $3,800-$4,200 (14.8%), while escalation risks propel $5,000+ bins (14.4%+), with real capital wagering on $4,400 as pivotal trader median.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$4,200-$4,600 19.7%
$4,600-$5,000 19%
$3,800-$4,200 14.8%
5,000至5,400美元 14.4%
$369,119 交易量
$369,119 交易量
低於$3,800
9%
$3,800-$4,200
15%
$4,200-$4,600
20%
$4,600-$5,000
19%
5,000至5,400美元
14%
5,400至5,800美元
10%
$5,800-$6,200
9%
高於$6,200
8%
$4,200-$4,600 19.7%
$4,600-$5,000 19%
$3,800-$4,200 14.8%
5,000至5,400美元 14.4%
$369,119 交易量
$369,119 交易量
低於$3,800
9%
$3,800-$4,200
15%
$4,200-$4,600
20%
$4,600-$5,000
19%
5,000至5,400美元
14%
5,400至5,800美元
10%
$5,800-$6,200
9%
高於$6,200
8%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
市場開放時間: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward gold (GC) settling between $4,200-$4,600 (19.7% implied probability) and $4,600-$5,000 (18.5%), reflecting bullish sentiment driven by persistent Fed rate cut expectations amid sticky inflation and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Recent pullback from October's all-time high near $2,800/oz stems from resilient US jobs data bolstering the dollar and Treasury yields, yet central bank buying—led by China—and de-dollarization trends underpin long-term upside. The tight race hinges on December FOMC guidance and Q1 2025 CPI prints; fewer-than-expected cuts could favor $3,800-$4,200 (14.8%), while escalation risks propel $5,000+ bins (14.4%+), with real capital wagering on $4,400 as pivotal trader median.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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