Polymarket traders' tight clustering around $4,200-$4,600 (20.8%) and $4,600-$5,000 (18.0%) for June GC gold settlement reflects bullish sentiment fueled by expectations of further Fed rate cuts weakening real yields, with the dollar index (DXY) near multi-month lows. Recent drivers include sticky CPI readings supporting disinflation narratives yet delaying aggressive easing, alongside central bank buying—China added 20 tonnes in Q3—and escalating Middle East tensions boosting safe-haven demand. Upside differentiation hinges on December FOMC signals for 75+ bps cuts by mid-2025, while downside risks from hotter-than-expected November CPI or resilient U.S. growth could favor $3,800-$4,200 (14.8%). Current spot gold hovers near $2,720/oz, with June futures implying 50%+ appreciation consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$4,200-$4,600 19.7%
$4,600-$5,000 18%
$3,800-$4,200 14.8%
5,000至5,400美元 14.5%
$369,099 交易量
$369,099 交易量
低於$3,800
8%
$3,800-$4,200
15%
$4,200-$4,600
20%
$4,600-$5,000
18%
5,000至5,400美元
14%
5,400至5,800美元
10%
$5,800-$6,200
9%
高於$6,200
8%
$4,200-$4,600 19.7%
$4,600-$5,000 18%
$3,800-$4,200 14.8%
5,000至5,400美元 14.5%
$369,099 交易量
$369,099 交易量
低於$3,800
8%
$3,800-$4,200
15%
$4,200-$4,600
20%
$4,600-$5,000
18%
5,000至5,400美元
14%
5,400至5,800美元
10%
$5,800-$6,200
9%
高於$6,200
8%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
市場開放時間: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' tight clustering around $4,200-$4,600 (20.8%) and $4,600-$5,000 (18.0%) for June GC gold settlement reflects bullish sentiment fueled by expectations of further Fed rate cuts weakening real yields, with the dollar index (DXY) near multi-month lows. Recent drivers include sticky CPI readings supporting disinflation narratives yet delaying aggressive easing, alongside central bank buying—China added 20 tonnes in Q3—and escalating Middle East tensions boosting safe-haven demand. Upside differentiation hinges on December FOMC signals for 75+ bps cuts by mid-2025, while downside risks from hotter-than-expected November CPI or resilient U.S. growth could favor $3,800-$4,200 (14.8%). Current spot gold hovers near $2,720/oz, with June futures implying 50%+ appreciation consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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