Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors Gold (GC) futures closing above key thresholds by June 30, with implied probabilities around 70% for strikes near $2,350, driven by persistent Fed rate-cut expectations following the June FOMC's steady 5.25-5.50% fed funds range and dovish dot-plot revisions signaling two cuts by year-end. Spot gold holds above $2,330/oz amid weakening DXY at 105.5 and elevated geopolitical risks boosting safe-haven flows, alongside central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes YTD per World Gold Council data. Watch June PCE inflation on June 28 for confirmation of cooling pressures; a print below 2.6% core could propel prices higher, while hotter data risks a pullback toward $2,300 support. Historical June seasonality shows modest 0.5% average gains.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$24,071 交易量
8,000美元
2%
7,000美元
13%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
6,000美元
10%
5,800美元
22%
5,600美元
26%
5,400美元
28%
5,200美元
40%
5,000美元
38%
4,800美元
46%
4,600美元
51%
$24,071 交易量
8,000美元
2%
7,000美元
13%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
6,000美元
10%
5,800美元
22%
5,600美元
26%
5,400美元
28%
5,200美元
40%
5,000美元
38%
4,800美元
46%
4,600美元
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
市場開放時間: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors Gold (GC) futures closing above key thresholds by June 30, with implied probabilities around 70% for strikes near $2,350, driven by persistent Fed rate-cut expectations following the June FOMC's steady 5.25-5.50% fed funds range and dovish dot-plot revisions signaling two cuts by year-end. Spot gold holds above $2,330/oz amid weakening DXY at 105.5 and elevated geopolitical risks boosting safe-haven flows, alongside central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes YTD per World Gold Council data. Watch June PCE inflation on June 28 for confirmation of cooling pressures; a print below 2.6% core could propel prices higher, while hotter data risks a pullback toward $2,300 support. Historical June seasonality shows modest 0.5% average gains.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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