Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55% implied probability for Gold (GC) futures exceeding $2,400 by June 30, driven primarily by lingering expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid cooling inflation data. Spot gold trades near $2,335/oz after peaking at $2,395 last week on Middle East tensions and central bank purchases, but pulled back on a firmer USD and rising 10-year Treasury yields to 4.25%. Key dynamics include negative real yields supporting non-yielding assets, with COMEX positioning showing net longs at 6-month highs. Watch June 28 PCE inflation release and July 1 nonfarm payrolls preview, as hotter-than-expected figures could cap upside; historical June seasonality favors modest gains.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$2,071,200 交易量
↑ $10,000
3%
↑ $8,500
3%
↑ $9,000
3%
↑ $8,000
4%
↑ $7,000
5%
↑ $6,500
8%
↑ $6,200
11%
↑ 6,000美元
13%
↑ $5,700
24%
↑ $5,500
28%
↓ 4,200美元
72%
↓ $3,800
15%
↓ 3,400美元
7%
$2,071,200 交易量
↑ $10,000
3%
↑ $8,500
3%
↑ $9,000
3%
↑ $8,000
4%
↑ $7,000
5%
↑ $6,500
8%
↑ $6,200
11%
↑ 6,000美元
13%
↑ $5,700
24%
↑ $5,500
28%
↓ 4,200美元
72%
↓ $3,800
15%
↓ 3,400美元
7%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
市場開放時間: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55% implied probability for Gold (GC) futures exceeding $2,400 by June 30, driven primarily by lingering expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid cooling inflation data. Spot gold trades near $2,335/oz after peaking at $2,395 last week on Middle East tensions and central bank purchases, but pulled back on a firmer USD and rising 10-year Treasury yields to 4.25%. Key dynamics include negative real yields supporting non-yielding assets, with COMEX positioning showing net longs at 6-month highs. Watch June 28 PCE inflation release and July 1 nonfarm payrolls preview, as hotter-than-expected figures could cap upside; historical June seasonality favors modest gains.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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