Traders' overwhelming 99.2% implied probability for the 80–85 per 100,000 cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate in Week 12 (ending March 28, 2026) reflects CDC FluSurv-NET data from the Week 11 FluView report, showing 81.6 per 100,000 through March 21 amid declining national flu activity. FluSight ensemble forecasts confirm sharply falling new weekly hospital admissions, with low virus detection and outpatient visits signaling the 2025-26 season's wind-down, adding negligible cases for Week 12. This aligns with historical post-peak stabilization patterns in FluSurv-NET surveillance covering millions across 14 states. Revisions could challenge this if substantial underreported Week 12 hospitalizations emerge or prior data adjusts downward, though completeness notes indicate low risk; final Week 12 report expected April 4.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
80–85 99.4%
75–80 <1%
85–90 <1%
<75 <1%
$19,930 交易量
$19,930 交易量
<75
<1%
75–80
<1%
80–85
99%
85–90
<1%
90–95
<1%
95以上
<1%
80–85 99.4%
75–80 <1%
85–90 <1%
<75 <1%
$19,930 交易量
$19,930 交易量
<75
<1%
75–80
<1%
80–85
99%
85–90
<1%
90–95
<1%
95以上
<1%
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
市場開放時間: Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' overwhelming 99.2% implied probability for the 80–85 per 100,000 cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate in Week 12 (ending March 28, 2026) reflects CDC FluSurv-NET data from the Week 11 FluView report, showing 81.6 per 100,000 through March 21 amid declining national flu activity. FluSight ensemble forecasts confirm sharply falling new weekly hospital admissions, with low virus detection and outpatient visits signaling the 2025-26 season's wind-down, adding negligible cases for Week 12. This aligns with historical post-peak stabilization patterns in FluSurv-NET surveillance covering millions across 14 states. Revisions could challenge this if substantial underreported Week 12 hospitalizations emerge or prior data adjusts downward, though completeness notes indicate low risk; final Week 12 report expected April 4.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions