Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, reflecting economist forecasts from IMF and major banks like Goldman Sachs projecting around 4.3–4.8% amid persistent property sector deleveraging, high local government debt, and demographic headwinds curbing consumption and investment. Recent Q4 2024 GDP data showed 5.4% year-on-year growth, meeting the official target, but factory activity contracted in January 2025 per Caixin PMI, signaling weakening momentum despite PBOC rate cuts and fiscal stimulus via special bond issuance. Potential U.S. tariffs under a second Trump administration add export downside risks, while the upcoming March National People's Congress will set 2025 targets that could influence longer-term trajectories through policy announcements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4.0–5.0% 71%
5.0–6.0% 26.8%
6.0-7.0% 2.0%
1.0–2.0% 1.9%
$192,687 交易量
$192,687 交易量
Jan 31, 2026
低於1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
2%
2.0–3.0%
1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
71%
5.0–6.0%
27%
6.0-7.0%
2%
7.0–8.0%
2%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%及以上
<1%
4.0–5.0% 71%
5.0–6.0% 26.8%
6.0-7.0% 2.0%
1.0–2.0% 1.9%
$192,687 交易量
$192,687 交易量
Jan 31, 2026
低於1.0%
$16,383 交易量
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$25,913 交易量
2%
2.0–3.0%
$5,093 交易量
1%
3.0–4.0%
$5,820 交易量
1%
4.0–5.0%
$10,319 交易量
71%
5.0–6.0%
$10,712 交易量
27%
6.0-7.0%
$17,665 交易量
2%
7.0–8.0%
$27,858 交易量
2%
8.0–9.0%
$5,390 交易量
1%
9.0%及以上
$67,534 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, reflecting economist forecasts from IMF and major banks like Goldman Sachs projecting around 4.3–4.8% amid persistent property sector deleveraging, high local government debt, and demographic headwinds curbing consumption and investment. Recent Q4 2024 GDP data showed 5.4% year-on-year growth, meeting the official target, but factory activity contracted in January 2025 per Caixin PMI, signaling weakening momentum despite PBOC rate cuts and fiscal stimulus via special bond issuance. Potential U.S. tariffs under a second Trump administration add export downside risks, while the upcoming March National People's Congress will set 2025 targets that could influence longer-term trajectories through policy announcements.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$192,687結束日期
Jan 31, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, reflecting economist forecasts from IMF and major banks like Goldman Sachs projecting around 4.3–4.8% amid persistent property sector deleveraging, high local government debt, and demographic headwinds curbing consumption and investment. Recent Q4 2024 GDP data showed 5.4% year-on-year growth, meeting the official target, but factory activity contracted in January 2025 per Caixin PMI, signaling weakening momentum despite PBOC rate cuts and fiscal stimulus via special bond issuance. Potential U.S. tariffs under a second Trump administration add export downside risks, while the upcoming March National People's Congress will set 2025 targets that could influence longer-term trajectories through policy announcements.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$192,687結束日期
Jan 31, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, reflecting economist forecasts from IMF and major banks like Goldman Sachs projecting around 4.3–4.8% amid persistent property sector deleveraging, high local government debt, and demographic headwinds curbing consumption and investment. Recent Q4 2024 GDP data showed 5.4% year-on-year growth, meeting the official target, but factory activity contracted in January 2025 per Caixin PMI, signaling weakening momentum despite PBOC rate cuts and fiscal stimulus via special bond issuance. Potential U.S. tariffs under a second Trump administration add export downside risks, while the upcoming March National People's Congress will set 2025 targets that could influence longer-term trajectories through policy announcements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions