Market icon

又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？

Market icon

又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？

May 31

May 31

NEW

$15,891 交易量

May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$15,891 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$6,163 交易量

13%

4月30日

$6,587 交易量

64%

5月31日

$3,272 交易量

84%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects seismic quiet in the four days since the magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24, 2026, the most recent M7+ event globally per USGS data. This follows a February 22 magnitude 7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia, but with no activity surpassing that threshold in the past week amid typical fluctuations along the Ring of Fire. Historical patterns show roughly 15-20 such quakes annually, implying about one every 18-24 days, fueling bets on resumption before any market deadline like March 31. Key monitoring focuses on subduction zones in the Pacific; real-time USGS alerts could trigger rapid shifts as conditions evolve unpredictably.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects seismic quiet in the four days since the magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24, 2026, the most recent M7+ event globally per USGS data. This follows a February 22 magnitude 7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia, but with no activity surpassing that threshold in the past week amid typical fluctuations along the Ring of Fire. Historical patterns show roughly 15-20 such quakes annually, implying about one every 18-24 days, fueling bets on resumption before any market deadline like March 31. Key monitoring focuses on subduction zones in the Pacific; real-time USGS alerts could trigger rapid shifts as conditions evolve unpredictably.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects seismic quiet in the four days since the magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24, 2026, the most recent M7+ event globally per USGS data. This follows a February 22 magnitude 7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia, but with no activity surpassing that threshold in the past week amid typical fluctuations along the Ring of Fire. Historical patterns show roughly 15-20 such quakes annually, implying about one every 18-24 days, fueling bets on resumption before any market deadline like March 31. Key monitoring focuses on subduction zones in the Pacific; real-time USGS alerts could trigger rapid shifts as conditions evolve unpredictably.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects seismic quiet in the four days since the magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24, 2026, the most recent M7+ event globally per USGS data. This follows a February 22 magnitude 7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia, but with no activity surpassing that threshold in the past week amid typical fluctuations along the Ring of Fire. Historical patterns show roughly 15-20 such quakes annually, implying about one every 18-24 days, fueling bets on resumption before any market deadline like March 31. Key monitoring focuses on subduction zones in the Pacific; real-time USGS alerts could trigger rapid shifts as conditions evolve unpredictably.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5月31日" at 84%, followed by "4月30日" at 64%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？" has generated $15.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？" is "5月31日" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4月30日" at 64%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.