Trader consensus favors "No" at 66% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven primarily by early forecasts of a below-average 2026 Atlantic season amid emerging El Niño conditions expected in June-August (62% chance per recent models). El Niño typically increases wind shear, suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification, as seen in quieter peak-season activity historically. No continental U.S. hurricane landfalls occurred in 2025 despite three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) striking elsewhere, marking the first such year since 2015, and none since Ian's Category 4 Florida strike in 2022. NOAA's May outlook and National Hurricane Center advisories will refine probabilities, with climatological odds of major U.S. landfalls around 0.3 per season underscoring baseline rarity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$315,387 交易量
$315,387 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$315,387 交易量
$315,387 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus favors "No" at 66% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven primarily by early forecasts of a below-average 2026 Atlantic season amid emerging El Niño conditions expected in June-August (62% chance per recent models). El Niño typically increases wind shear, suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification, as seen in quieter peak-season activity historically. No continental U.S. hurricane landfalls occurred in 2025 despite three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) striking elsewhere, marking the first such year since 2015, and none since Ian's Category 4 Florida strike in 2022. NOAA's May outlook and National Hurricane Center advisories will refine probabilities, with climatological odds of major U.S. landfalls around 0.3 per season underscoring baseline rarity.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市場開放時間： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$315,387結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus favors "No" at 66% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven primarily by early forecasts of a below-average 2026 Atlantic season amid emerging El Niño conditions expected in June-August (62% chance per recent models). El Niño typically increases wind shear, suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification, as seen in quieter peak-season activity historically. No continental U.S. hurricane landfalls occurred in 2025 despite three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) striking elsewhere, marking the first such year since 2015, and none since Ian's Category 4 Florida strike in 2022. NOAA's May outlook and National Hurricane Center advisories will refine probabilities, with climatological odds of major U.S. landfalls around 0.3 per season underscoring baseline rarity.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$315,387結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 66% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven primarily by early forecasts of a below-average 2026 Atlantic season amid emerging El Niño conditions expected in June-August (62% chance per recent models). El Niño typically increases wind shear, suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification, as seen in quieter peak-season activity historically. No continental U.S. hurricane landfalls occurred in 2025 despite three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) striking elsewhere, marking the first such year since 2015, and none since Ian's Category 4 Florida strike in 2022. NOAA's May outlook and National Hurricane Center advisories will refine probabilities, with climatological odds of major U.S. landfalls around 0.3 per season underscoring baseline rarity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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