Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.2% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, anchored by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific as of early April, with routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 or as needed. Climatologically, no continental U.S. hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—has made landfall before June 1 since reliable records began in 1851, due to cooler sea surface temperatures, stronger wind shear, and unfavorable steering patterns inhibiting early-season intensification. Recent NHC updates focus on forecast graphics rather than activity signals, while seasonal outlooks like AccuWeather's predict normal activity starting June. Realistic challenges include anomalous rapid genesis from unexpectedly warm waters or shear collapse, though current models show no such threats; watch NHC briefings from mid-May for shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$11,637 交易量
$11,637 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$11,637 交易量
$11,637 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.2% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, anchored by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific as of early April, with routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 or as needed. Climatologically, no continental U.S. hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—has made landfall before June 1 since reliable records began in 1851, due to cooler sea surface temperatures, stronger wind shear, and unfavorable steering patterns inhibiting early-season intensification. Recent NHC updates focus on forecast graphics rather than activity signals, while seasonal outlooks like AccuWeather's predict normal activity starting June. Realistic challenges include anomalous rapid genesis from unexpectedly warm waters or shear collapse, though current models show no such threats; watch NHC briefings from mid-May for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
市場開放時間： Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
交易量
$11,637結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.2% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, anchored by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific as of early April, with routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 or as needed. Climatologically, no continental U.S. hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—has made landfall before June 1 since reliable records began in 1851, due to cooler sea surface temperatures, stronger wind shear, and unfavorable steering patterns inhibiting early-season intensification. Recent NHC updates focus on forecast graphics rather than activity signals, while seasonal outlooks like AccuWeather's predict normal activity starting June. Realistic challenges include anomalous rapid genesis from unexpectedly warm waters or shear collapse, though current models show no such threats; watch NHC briefings from mid-May for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
交易量
$11,637結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.2% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, anchored by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific as of early April, with routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 or as needed. Climatologically, no continental U.S. hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—has made landfall before June 1 since reliable records began in 1851, due to cooler sea surface temperatures, stronger wind shear, and unfavorable steering patterns inhibiting early-season intensification. Recent NHC updates focus on forecast graphics rather than activity signals, while seasonal outlooks like AccuWeather's predict normal activity starting June. Realistic challenges include anomalous rapid genesis from unexpectedly warm waters or shear collapse, though current models show no such threats; watch NHC briefings from mid-May for shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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