Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.3% implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the climatological rarity of such events before the official Atlantic hurricane season start on June 1. The National Hurricane Center reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances, with outlooks paused until May 15 and no formation expected in the next seven days amid cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained intensification. Historical records since 1851 show zero hurricane (Category 1+) landfalls before June 1, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen rapid warm-up in the main development region or unusually low wind shear in late May, though current El Niño watch conditions further suppress early activity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$11,658 交易量
$11,658 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$11,658 交易量
$11,658 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.3% implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the climatological rarity of such events before the official Atlantic hurricane season start on June 1. The National Hurricane Center reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances, with outlooks paused until May 15 and no formation expected in the next seven days amid cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained intensification. Historical records since 1851 show zero hurricane (Category 1+) landfalls before June 1, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen rapid warm-up in the main development region or unusually low wind shear in late May, though current El Niño watch conditions further suppress early activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
市場開放時間： Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
交易量
$11,658結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.3% implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the climatological rarity of such events before the official Atlantic hurricane season start on June 1. The National Hurricane Center reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances, with outlooks paused until May 15 and no formation expected in the next seven days amid cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained intensification. Historical records since 1851 show zero hurricane (Category 1+) landfalls before June 1, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen rapid warm-up in the main development region or unusually low wind shear in late May, though current El Niño watch conditions further suppress early activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
交易量
$11,658結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.3% implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the climatological rarity of such events before the official Atlantic hurricane season start on June 1. The National Hurricane Center reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances, with outlooks paused until May 15 and no formation expected in the next seven days amid cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained intensification. Historical records since 1851 show zero hurricane (Category 1+) landfalls before June 1, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen rapid warm-up in the main development region or unusually low wind shear in late May, though current El Niño watch conditions further suppress early activity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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