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氣候與科學·科學

2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？

Market icon
氣候與科學·科學

2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？

4月 10

5月 10

4月 10

5月 10

第4熱或更低 98.8%

第3熱 <1%

有史以來最熱 <1%

第二熱 <1%

Polymarket

$309,625 交易量

第4熱或更低 98.8%

第3熱 <1%

有史以來最熱 <1%

第二熱 <1%

Polymarket

$309,625 交易量

有史以來最熱

$114,654 交易量

<1%

第二熱

$59,373 交易量

<1%

第3熱

$100,673 交易量

<1%

第4熱或更低

$34,925 交易量

99%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data from Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and University of Alabama in Huntsville satellite measurements indicate March 2026 global surface air temperature anomalies below 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—far cooler than the record 1.68°C in March 2024 or 1.31°C in March 2025 per NOAA records—driving trader consensus at 98.8% odds for fourth or lower ranking. This positioning reflects lingering La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific, which suppress global averages despite record U.S. Southwest heat exceeding 3.7°C anomalies in the lower 48 states. Offsetting cooler patterns elsewhere, including Europe, align with historical La Niña impacts reducing anomalies by 0.1–0.3°C. Final NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information rankings, expected mid-April, could revise slightly via ocean data adjustments, but top-three contention requires improbable upward shifts exceeding 0.3°C.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.

Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$309,625
結束日期
2026-04-10
市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data from Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and University of Alabama in Huntsville satellite measurements indicate March 2026 global surface air temperature anomalies below 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—far cooler than the record 1.68°C in March 2024 or 1.31°C in March 2025 per NOAA records—driving trader consensus at 98.8% odds for fourth or lower ranking. This positioning reflects lingering La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific, which suppress global averages despite record U.S. Southwest heat exceeding 3.7°C anomalies in the lower 48 states. Offsetting cooler patterns elsewhere, including Europe, align with historical La Niña impacts reducing anomalies by 0.1–0.3°C. Final NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information rankings, expected mid-April, could revise slightly via ocean data adjustments, but top-three contention requires improbable upward shifts exceeding 0.3°C.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.

Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$309,625
結束日期
2026-04-10
市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "第4熱或更低" at 99%, followed by "有史以來最熱" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？" has generated $309.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？" is "第4熱或更低" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "有史以來最熱" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.