Traders assign a 69.5% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 amid ongoing but contained Middle East tensions, including U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks toward a potential memorandum of understanding and ceasefire framework, alongside Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Recent signals of de-escalation, such as Strait of Hormuz reopening proposals and Iranian review of U.S. proposals, have tempered expectations for major new escalations or breakthroughs before year-end. With U.S. midterms approaching in November and no immediate triggers for broader conflict or leadership changes, the crowd-sourced consensus reflects limited catalysts for high-impact events in the remaining months, though scheduled diplomatic summits and any shifts in Ukraine or Gaza dynamics could still influence resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Так
$591,467 Обс.
$591,467 Обс.
Так
$591,467 Обс.
$591,467 Обс.
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 69.5% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 amid ongoing but contained Middle East tensions, including U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks toward a potential memorandum of understanding and ceasefire framework, alongside Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Recent signals of de-escalation, such as Strait of Hormuz reopening proposals and Iranian review of U.S. proposals, have tempered expectations for major new escalations or breakthroughs before year-end. With U.S. midterms approaching in November and no immediate triggers for broader conflict or leadership changes, the crowd-sourced consensus reflects limited catalysts for high-impact events in the remaining months, though scheduled diplomatic summits and any shifts in Ukraine or Gaza dynamics could still influence resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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