Traders assign a 69.5% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 amid ongoing but contained Middle East tensions, including U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks toward a potential memorandum of understanding and ceasefire framework, alongside Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Recent signals of de-escalation, such as Strait of Hormuz reopening proposals and Iranian review of U.S. proposals, have tempered expectations for major new escalations or breakthroughs before year-end. With U.S. midterms approaching in November and no immediate triggers for broader conflict or leadership changes, the crowd-sourced consensus reflects limited catalysts for high-impact events in the remaining months, though scheduled diplomatic summits and any shifts in Ukraine or Gaza dynamics could still influence resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Нічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Так
$591,467 Обс.
$591,467 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
$591,467 Обс.
$591,467 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 69.5% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 amid ongoing but contained Middle East tensions, including U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks toward a potential memorandum of understanding and ceasefire framework, alongside Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Recent signals of de-escalation, such as Strait of Hormuz reopening proposals and Iranian review of U.S. proposals, have tempered expectations for major new escalations or breakthroughs before year-end. With U.S. midterms approaching in November and no immediate triggers for broader conflict or leadership changes, the crowd-sourced consensus reflects limited catalysts for high-impact events in the remaining months, though scheduled diplomatic summits and any shifts in Ukraine or Gaza dynamics could still influence resolution.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$591,467Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 69.5% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 amid ongoing but contained Middle East tensions, including U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks toward a potential memorandum of understanding and ceasefire framework, alongside Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Recent signals of de-escalation, such as Strait of Hormuz reopening proposals and Iranian review of U.S. proposals, have tempered expectations for major new escalations or breakthroughs before year-end. With U.S. midterms approaching in November and no immediate triggers for broader conflict or leadership changes, the crowd-sourced consensus reflects limited catalysts for high-impact events in the remaining months, though scheduled diplomatic summits and any shifts in Ukraine or Gaza dynamics could still influence resolution.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$591,467Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 69.5% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 amid ongoing but contained Middle East tensions, including U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks toward a potential memorandum of understanding and ceasefire framework, alongside Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Recent signals of de-escalation, such as Strait of Hormuz reopening proposals and Iranian review of U.S. proposals, have tempered expectations for major new escalations or breakthroughs before year-end. With U.S. midterms approaching in November and no immediate triggers for broader conflict or leadership changes, the crowd-sourced consensus reflects limited catalysts for high-impact events in the remaining months, though scheduled diplomatic summits and any shifts in Ukraine or Gaza dynamics could still influence resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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