Trader consensus prices a 58.5% implied probability that none of the specified high-impact events—such as President Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping departing power, a U.S. invasion of Iran, or the Iranian regime falling—occur through December 31, 2026. This positioning reflects the absence of any qualifying triggers in the year's first quarter, despite escalated U.S.-Iran tensions involving limited military entries and airstrikes that fell short of full invasion thresholds, followed by a fragile ceasefire around April 9. Ongoing diplomatic signals, including potential U.S.-Iran meetings and Strait of Hormuz de-escalation, have eased immediate escalation fears, while stable leadership in Washington and Beijing reinforces the "nothing happens" baseline amid watchful monitoring of Middle East ceasefires and Taiwan Strait dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Нічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Так
$505,871 Обс.
$505,871 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
$505,871 Обс.
$505,871 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 58.5% implied probability that none of the specified high-impact events—such as President Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping departing power, a U.S. invasion of Iran, or the Iranian regime falling—occur through December 31, 2026. This positioning reflects the absence of any qualifying triggers in the year's first quarter, despite escalated U.S.-Iran tensions involving limited military entries and airstrikes that fell short of full invasion thresholds, followed by a fragile ceasefire around April 9. Ongoing diplomatic signals, including potential U.S.-Iran meetings and Strait of Hormuz de-escalation, have eased immediate escalation fears, while stable leadership in Washington and Beijing reinforces the "nothing happens" baseline amid watchful monitoring of Middle East ceasefires and Taiwan Strait dynamics.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$505,871Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 58.5% implied probability that none of the specified high-impact events—such as President Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping departing power, a U.S. invasion of Iran, or the Iranian regime falling—occur through December 31, 2026. This positioning reflects the absence of any qualifying triggers in the year's first quarter, despite escalated U.S.-Iran tensions involving limited military entries and airstrikes that fell short of full invasion thresholds, followed by a fragile ceasefire around April 9. Ongoing diplomatic signals, including potential U.S.-Iran meetings and Strait of Hormuz de-escalation, have eased immediate escalation fears, while stable leadership in Washington and Beijing reinforces the "nothing happens" baseline amid watchful monitoring of Middle East ceasefires and Taiwan Strait dynamics.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$505,871Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 58.5% implied probability that none of the specified high-impact events—such as President Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping departing power, a U.S. invasion of Iran, or the Iranian regime falling—occur through December 31, 2026. This positioning reflects the absence of any qualifying triggers in the year's first quarter, despite escalated U.S.-Iran tensions involving limited military entries and airstrikes that fell short of full invasion thresholds, followed by a fragile ceasefire around April 9. Ongoing diplomatic signals, including potential U.S.-Iran meetings and Strait of Hormuz de-escalation, have eased immediate escalation fears, while stable leadership in Washington and Beijing reinforces the "nothing happens" baseline amid watchful monitoring of Middle East ceasefires and Taiwan Strait dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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