Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 72.5% for no major black swan events through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of resolution triggers in the first four months since January, including President Trump remaining securely in office amid routine executive actions and nominations like Mike Waltz for UN ambassador, Xi Jinping's stable leadership, and no escalatory military invasions such as China into Taiwan or Russia into a NATO country. Fragile US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine ceasefires have held despite recent exchanges of fire and short-term truces, averting regime collapse in Iran or broader conflicts, while Bitcoin prices stay between $10,000 and $1 million and no Republican Senate supermajority projections have emerged ahead of November midterms. Geopolitical stasis bolsters odds, though lingering tensions and unforeseen disasters could shift them.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Нічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Так
$554,413 Обс.
$554,413 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
$554,413 Обс.
$554,413 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 72.5% for no major black swan events through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of resolution triggers in the first four months since January, including President Trump remaining securely in office amid routine executive actions and nominations like Mike Waltz for UN ambassador, Xi Jinping's stable leadership, and no escalatory military invasions such as China into Taiwan or Russia into a NATO country. Fragile US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine ceasefires have held despite recent exchanges of fire and short-term truces, averting regime collapse in Iran or broader conflicts, while Bitcoin prices stay between $10,000 and $1 million and no Republican Senate supermajority projections have emerged ahead of November midterms. Geopolitical stasis bolsters odds, though lingering tensions and unforeseen disasters could shift them.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$554,413Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 72.5% for no major black swan events through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of resolution triggers in the first four months since January, including President Trump remaining securely in office amid routine executive actions and nominations like Mike Waltz for UN ambassador, Xi Jinping's stable leadership, and no escalatory military invasions such as China into Taiwan or Russia into a NATO country. Fragile US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine ceasefires have held despite recent exchanges of fire and short-term truces, averting regime collapse in Iran or broader conflicts, while Bitcoin prices stay between $10,000 and $1 million and no Republican Senate supermajority projections have emerged ahead of November midterms. Geopolitical stasis bolsters odds, though lingering tensions and unforeseen disasters could shift them.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$554,413Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 72.5% for no major black swan events through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of resolution triggers in the first four months since January, including President Trump remaining securely in office amid routine executive actions and nominations like Mike Waltz for UN ambassador, Xi Jinping's stable leadership, and no escalatory military invasions such as China into Taiwan or Russia into a NATO country. Fragile US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine ceasefires have held despite recent exchanges of fire and short-term truces, averting regime collapse in Iran or broader conflicts, while Bitcoin prices stay between $10,000 and $1 million and no Republican Senate supermajority projections have emerged ahead of November midterms. Geopolitical stasis bolsters odds, though lingering tensions and unforeseen disasters could shift them.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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