Recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela and the Iran conflict earlier in 2026, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, resolved without triggering wider regional war, sustained economic collapse, or additional major power interventions. Traders assign an 83% probability to “Yes” amid subsequent diplomatic de-escalation signals, contained oil market effects, and the absence of fresh escalations through mid-year. Domestic U.S. government funding negotiations and the ongoing FIFA World Cup preparations have also proceeded without triggering new systemic disruptions. This pricing reflects crowd-sourced assessment that the balance of scheduled electoral, legislative, and diplomatic events through December is unlikely to produce further high-impact shocks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Нічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Так
$631,816 Обс.
$631,816 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
$631,816 Обс.
$631,816 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfRecent U.S. military actions in Venezuela and the Iran conflict earlier in 2026, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, resolved without triggering wider regional war, sustained economic collapse, or additional major power interventions. Traders assign an 83% probability to “Yes” amid subsequent diplomatic de-escalation signals, contained oil market effects, and the absence of fresh escalations through mid-year. Domestic U.S. government funding negotiations and the ongoing FIFA World Cup preparations have also proceeded without triggering new systemic disruptions. This pricing reflects crowd-sourced assessment that the balance of scheduled electoral, legislative, and diplomatic events through December is unlikely to produce further high-impact shocks.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$631,816Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfRecent U.S. military actions in Venezuela and the Iran conflict earlier in 2026, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, resolved without triggering wider regional war, sustained economic collapse, or additional major power interventions. Traders assign an 83% probability to “Yes” amid subsequent diplomatic de-escalation signals, contained oil market effects, and the absence of fresh escalations through mid-year. Domestic U.S. government funding negotiations and the ongoing FIFA World Cup preparations have also proceeded without triggering new systemic disruptions. This pricing reflects crowd-sourced assessment that the balance of scheduled electoral, legislative, and diplomatic events through December is unlikely to produce further high-impact shocks.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$631,816Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela and the Iran conflict earlier in 2026, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, resolved without triggering wider regional war, sustained economic collapse, or additional major power interventions. Traders assign an 83% probability to “Yes” amid subsequent diplomatic de-escalation signals, contained oil market effects, and the absence of fresh escalations through mid-year. Domestic U.S. government funding negotiations and the ongoing FIFA World Cup preparations have also proceeded without triggering new systemic disruptions. This pricing reflects crowd-sourced assessment that the balance of scheduled electoral, legislative, and diplomatic events through December is unlikely to produce further high-impact shocks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання