**Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and islands in September 2026 have intensified risks to shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** In mid-September, Houthi forces captured Mokha, Dhubab, Perim/Mayyun Island, and Hanish islands, securing positions overlooking the narrow chokepoint that handles roughly 12% of global trade and significant oil and LNG volumes. This followed a July maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels, with multiple attacks on tankers and other ships reported through August and September. Traffic has fallen sharply—tanker transits roughly 26% below recent averages by early October, with many operators rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope due to elevated insurance, missile threats, and operational hazards—though no authority has declared a formal closure and limited commercial transits continue. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive in early October claiming partial control of key coastal points, though independent verification remains limited and Houthi-aligned sources dispute the advances. Ongoing regional tensions, including parallel disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, sustain uncertainty over whether further escalation, diplomacy, or renewed fighting will alter the strait’s effective usability in coming weeks.