Escalating Middle East tensions have intensified trader focus on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a key energy chokepoint, with Iranian and Houthi threats in April and early June 2026 to disrupt or close the route linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Recent statements tie potential action to ongoing conflicts involving Israel and U.S. policy, echoing 2023-2025 Houthi attacks that previously rerouted vessels and lifted freight rates. Oil flows through the strait averaged around 4 million barrels per day in prior periods, and any effective closure would force longer Africa routes, elevating shipping costs, widening basis differentials, and supporting higher crude benchmarks amid already constrained global supply. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether threats translate into sustained navigational denial before diplomatic de-escalation or military responses intervene. Key near-term catalysts include FOMC policy signals on inflation pass-through and any updates on regional ceasefires.