Yemeni government forces backed by the Saudi-led coalition launched Operation Yemen Dawn in early October 2026, advancing against Houthi positions along the Red Sea coast and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in an effort to recapture territory seized earlier in the year. Clashes on October 9-10 killed at least 63 fighters from both sides, with government sources claiming progress toward Dhubab, Mayun Island, and key coastal areas while Houthis reported repelling the assault and retaining control of the waterway and islands. Shipping traffic remains reduced but not halted, with no formal closure declared and ongoing risks from attacks or mining. The outcome hinges on the pace of the ground offensive, coalition airstrikes, and any Houthi counter-moves or external diplomatic pressure that could alter effective control of the chokepoint in coming weeks.