Tensions between China and the Philippines remain elevated in the South China Sea, with frequent gray-zone confrontations involving coast guard vessels, water cannons, dangerous maneuvers, and minor physical altercations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal through mid-2026. However, both sides have sustained diplomatic channels, including foreign minister meetings and bilateral consultations, alongside Philippine efforts toward a bilateral reset emphasizing economic cooperation and resupply arrangements. These developments, combined with mutual restraint that avoids live-fire incidents or direct PLA involvement, underpin the 74.5% implied probability that no full military clash will occur before 2027. Scheduled regional summits and ongoing talks on confidence-building measures further support trader expectations of managed competition rather than escalation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено26% шанс
$397,464 Обс.
$397,464 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
26% шанс
$397,464 Обс.
$397,464 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between China and the Philippines remain elevated in the South China Sea, with frequent gray-zone confrontations involving coast guard vessels, water cannons, dangerous maneuvers, and minor physical altercations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal through mid-2026. However, both sides have sustained diplomatic channels, including foreign minister meetings and bilateral consultations, alongside Philippine efforts toward a bilateral reset emphasizing economic cooperation and resupply arrangements. These developments, combined with mutual restraint that avoids live-fire incidents or direct PLA involvement, underpin the 74.5% implied probability that no full military clash will occur before 2027. Scheduled regional summits and ongoing talks on confidence-building measures further support trader expectations of managed competition rather than escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$397,464Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between China and the Philippines remain elevated in the South China Sea, with frequent gray-zone confrontations involving coast guard vessels, water cannons, dangerous maneuvers, and minor physical altercations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal through mid-2026. However, both sides have sustained diplomatic channels, including foreign minister meetings and bilateral consultations, alongside Philippine efforts toward a bilateral reset emphasizing economic cooperation and resupply arrangements. These developments, combined with mutual restraint that avoids live-fire incidents or direct PLA involvement, underpin the 74.5% implied probability that no full military clash will occur before 2027. Scheduled regional summits and ongoing talks on confidence-building measures further support trader expectations of managed competition rather than escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$397,464Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Tensions between China and the Philippines remain elevated in the South China Sea, with frequent gray-zone confrontations involving coast guard vessels, water cannons, dangerous maneuvers, and minor physical altercations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal through mid-2026. However, both sides have sustained diplomatic channels, including foreign minister meetings and bilateral consultations, alongside Philippine efforts toward a bilateral reset emphasizing economic cooperation and resupply arrangements. These developments, combined with mutual restraint that avoids live-fire incidents or direct PLA involvement, underpin the 74.5% implied probability that no full military clash will occur before 2027. Scheduled regional summits and ongoing talks on confidence-building measures further support trader expectations of managed competition rather than escalation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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