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icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

Моджтаба Хаменеї 73.8%

Немає Глави держави 11.8%

Реза Пехлеві 4.0%

Ахмад Вахіді 3.6%

Polymarket

$32,574,592 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї 73.8%

Немає Глави держави 11.8%

Реза Пехлеві 4.0%

Ахмад Вахіді 3.6%

Polymarket

$32,574,592 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї

$3,938,703 Обс.

74%

Немає Глави держави

$1,013,167 Обс.

12%

Реза Пехлеві

$435,460 Обс.

4%

Ахмад Вахіді

$519,578 Обс.

4%

Мохаммад-Багер Калібаф

$700,647 Обс.

2%

Аліреза Арафі

$2,067,400 Обс.

1%

Масуд Пезешкіан

$802,151 Обс.

1%

Хасан Рухані

$775,281 Обс.

1%

Аббас Арагчі

$631,677 Обс.

1%

Хасан Хомейні

$1,233,357 Обс.

<1%

Махмуд Ахмадінеджад

$972,208 Обс.

<1%

Мухаммад Мірбакірі

$405,943 Обс.

<1%

Садег Ларіджані

$503,317 Обс.

<1%

Хасан Шаріатмадинарі

$1,760,241 Обс.

<1%

Марʼям Раджаві

$782,618 Обс.

<1%

Массуд Раджаві

$373,017 Обс.

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавіан

$3,661,108 Обс.

<1%

Реза Пірзаде

$124,491 Обс.

<1%

Навід Шомалі

$190,176 Обс.

<1%

Мустафа Хіджрі

$175,458 Обс.

<1%

Алі Мотахарі

$815,492 Обс.

<1%

Голам-Алі Хаддад-Адел

$410,972 Обс.

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммаді

$3,324,309 Обс.

<1%

Садеґ Махсулі

$221,797 Обс.

<1%

Саїд Джалілі

$365,169 Обс.

<1%

Мохаммад Хатамі

$5,019,162 Обс.

<1%

Мохсен Аракі

$265,388 Обс.

<1%

Насір Хоссейні

$237,926 Обс.

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейні Хорасані

$287,443 Обс.

<1%

Алі Асґар Хеджазі

$324,348 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because Iran’s Assembly of Experts formally selected him as Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The unanimous vote by the clerical body, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, established Mojtaba as the constitutional head of state with command authority over security forces. No subsequent leadership change, coup, or Assembly reversal has occurred through mid-June 2026. Other listed figures remain marginal because they lack comparable institutional support or current office: exiled opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi face regime barriers, while clerics like Alireza Arafi or officials like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf hold secondary roles without succession momentum. Trader pricing therefore reflects continuity under the newly installed leader through year-end absent major disruption.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$32,574,592
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because Iran’s Assembly of Experts formally selected him as Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The unanimous vote by the clerical body, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, established Mojtaba as the constitutional head of state with command authority over security forces. No subsequent leadership change, coup, or Assembly reversal has occurred through mid-June 2026. Other listed figures remain marginal because they lack comparable institutional support or current office: exiled opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi face regime barriers, while clerics like Alireza Arafi or officials like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf hold secondary roles without succession momentum. Trader pricing therefore reflects continuity under the newly installed leader through year-end absent major disruption.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$32,574,592
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 32 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 74%, далі «Немає Глави держави» з 12%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» згенерував $32.6 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Feb 28, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?», перегляньте 32 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 74%. Наступний — «Немає Глави держави» з 12%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.