Traders assign a 72.5% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the market’s resolution thresholds—such as a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake or a Volcanic Explosivity Index 6 or higher eruption—remain statistically rare. USGS seismic records and Smithsonian Institution volcano data show these occur only a few times per millennium and roughly once per century, respectively, with no such activity detected in the first five months of 2026 to alter consensus. Ongoing global monitoring networks continue to register only background seismic and magmatic levels, while inherent uncertainties in long-term tectonic and volcanic forecasting reinforce the current positioning ahead of routine surveillance updates through year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$219,932 Обс.
$219,932 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$219,932 Обс.
$219,932 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 72.5% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the market’s resolution thresholds—such as a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake or a Volcanic Explosivity Index 6 or higher eruption—remain statistically rare. USGS seismic records and Smithsonian Institution volcano data show these occur only a few times per millennium and roughly once per century, respectively, with no such activity detected in the first five months of 2026 to alter consensus. Ongoing global monitoring networks continue to register only background seismic and magmatic levels, while inherent uncertainties in long-term tectonic and volcanic forecasting reinforce the current positioning ahead of routine surveillance updates through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$219,932Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 72.5% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the market’s resolution thresholds—such as a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake or a Volcanic Explosivity Index 6 or higher eruption—remain statistically rare. USGS seismic records and Smithsonian Institution volcano data show these occur only a few times per millennium and roughly once per century, respectively, with no such activity detected in the first five months of 2026 to alter consensus. Ongoing global monitoring networks continue to register only background seismic and magmatic levels, while inherent uncertainties in long-term tectonic and volcanic forecasting reinforce the current positioning ahead of routine surveillance updates through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$219,932Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 72.5% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the market’s resolution thresholds—such as a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake or a Volcanic Explosivity Index 6 or higher eruption—remain statistically rare. USGS seismic records and Smithsonian Institution volcano data show these occur only a few times per millennium and roughly once per century, respectively, with no such activity detected in the first five months of 2026 to alter consensus. Ongoing global monitoring networks continue to register only background seismic and magmatic levels, while inherent uncertainties in long-term tectonic and volcanic forecasting reinforce the current positioning ahead of routine surveillance updates through year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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