Traders assign a 72.5% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the resolution thresholds remain statistically rare. Historical records from the USGS and Smithsonian Institution show VEI-6 or larger volcanic eruptions occur roughly once per century, while 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes are even less frequent globally. In the first five months of 2026, seismic networks and volcano observatories have recorded only background activity with no signals indicating imminent escalation. NOAA’s early outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season further supports this positioning, forecasting an 55% chance of below-normal activity and just 1–3 major hurricanes. Ongoing global monitoring provides no new data to alter these baselines ahead of potential late-year updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$219,862 Обс.
$219,862 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$219,862 Обс.
$219,862 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 72.5% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the resolution thresholds remain statistically rare. Historical records from the USGS and Smithsonian Institution show VEI-6 or larger volcanic eruptions occur roughly once per century, while 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes are even less frequent globally. In the first five months of 2026, seismic networks and volcano observatories have recorded only background activity with no signals indicating imminent escalation. NOAA’s early outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season further supports this positioning, forecasting an 55% chance of below-normal activity and just 1–3 major hurricanes. Ongoing global monitoring provides no new data to alter these baselines ahead of potential late-year updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$219,862Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 72.5% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the resolution thresholds remain statistically rare. Historical records from the USGS and Smithsonian Institution show VEI-6 or larger volcanic eruptions occur roughly once per century, while 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes are even less frequent globally. In the first five months of 2026, seismic networks and volcano observatories have recorded only background activity with no signals indicating imminent escalation. NOAA’s early outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season further supports this positioning, forecasting an 55% chance of below-normal activity and just 1–3 major hurricanes. Ongoing global monitoring provides no new data to alter these baselines ahead of potential late-year updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$219,862Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 72.5% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the resolution thresholds remain statistically rare. Historical records from the USGS and Smithsonian Institution show VEI-6 or larger volcanic eruptions occur roughly once per century, while 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes are even less frequent globally. In the first five months of 2026, seismic networks and volcano observatories have recorded only background activity with no signals indicating imminent escalation. NOAA’s early outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season further supports this positioning, forecasting an 55% chance of below-normal activity and just 1–3 major hurricanes. Ongoing global monitoring provides no new data to alter these baselines ahead of potential late-year updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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