Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 72.5% reflects the historical rarity of qualifying extreme events meeting the market's strict thresholds, such as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or a major meteor impact. Through late May 2026, official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center and USGS shows only moderate activity, including January California wildfires and scattered flooding, none reaching resolution criteria. Climatological baselines indicate Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur roughly once per decade on average, while great earthquakes and super-eruptions remain infrequent on annual timescales, supporting the current market-implied odds amid ongoing seasonal monitoring.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$219,862 Обс.
$219,862 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$219,862 Обс.
$219,862 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 72.5% reflects the historical rarity of qualifying extreme events meeting the market's strict thresholds, such as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or a major meteor impact. Through late May 2026, official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center and USGS shows only moderate activity, including January California wildfires and scattered flooding, none reaching resolution criteria. Climatological baselines indicate Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur roughly once per decade on average, while great earthquakes and super-eruptions remain infrequent on annual timescales, supporting the current market-implied odds amid ongoing seasonal monitoring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$219,862Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 72.5% reflects the historical rarity of qualifying extreme events meeting the market's strict thresholds, such as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or a major meteor impact. Through late May 2026, official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center and USGS shows only moderate activity, including January California wildfires and scattered flooding, none reaching resolution criteria. Climatological baselines indicate Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur roughly once per decade on average, while great earthquakes and super-eruptions remain infrequent on annual timescales, supporting the current market-implied odds amid ongoing seasonal monitoring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$219,862Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 72.5% reflects the historical rarity of qualifying extreme events meeting the market's strict thresholds, such as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the United States, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or a major meteor impact. Through late May 2026, official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center and USGS shows only moderate activity, including January California wildfires and scattered flooding, none reaching resolution criteria. Climatological baselines indicate Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur roughly once per decade on average, while great earthquakes and super-eruptions remain infrequent on annual timescales, supporting the current market-implied odds amid ongoing seasonal monitoring.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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