Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through late April—no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake according to USGS data (with the largest at M7.5 off Tonga in March), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring, and no 10-kiloton-plus meteor airburst via NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Colorado State University's April forecast predicts a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under transitioning weak La Niña to neutral conditions, historically limiting Cat 5 landfalls to under 5% annual odds. Seismic and volcanic patterns remain routine without megathrust escalation, though hurricane season opens June 1 with NOAA updates expected to refine intensification risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$210,422 Обс.
$210,422 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$210,422 Обс.
$210,422 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through late April—no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake according to USGS data (with the largest at M7.5 off Tonga in March), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring, and no 10-kiloton-plus meteor airburst via NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Colorado State University's April forecast predicts a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under transitioning weak La Niña to neutral conditions, historically limiting Cat 5 landfalls to under 5% annual odds. Seismic and volcanic patterns remain routine without megathrust escalation, though hurricane season opens June 1 with NOAA updates expected to refine intensification risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$210,422Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through late April—no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake according to USGS data (with the largest at M7.5 off Tonga in March), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring, and no 10-kiloton-plus meteor airburst via NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Colorado State University's April forecast predicts a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under transitioning weak La Niña to neutral conditions, historically limiting Cat 5 landfalls to under 5% annual odds. Seismic and volcanic patterns remain routine without megathrust escalation, though hurricane season opens June 1 with NOAA updates expected to refine intensification risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$210,422Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through late April—no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake according to USGS data (with the largest at M7.5 off Tonga in March), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring, and no 10-kiloton-plus meteor airburst via NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Colorado State University's April forecast predicts a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under transitioning weak La Niña to neutral conditions, historically limiting Cat 5 landfalls to under 5% annual odds. Seismic and volcanic patterns remain routine without megathrust escalation, though hurricane season opens June 1 with NOAA updates expected to refine intensification risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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