Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Supreme Leader after his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026, has not appeared publicly since early March, prompting U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments that he is unconscious or severely wounded and receiving treatment in Qom. This absence, amid indirect state media statements attributed to him, has fueled concerns of a power vacuum within Iran's clerical and IRGC leadership structures. The Assembly of Experts' rapid succession bypassed traditional procedures, and ongoing regional tensions, including potential Israeli strikes, heighten risks of further instability. Traders monitor for proof-of-life visuals or official addresses, which could clarify governance capacity before any year-end resolution deadlines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$9,592,764 Обс.
Apr 30, 2026
30 квітня
5%
31 травня
9%
30 червня
17%
31 грудня
34%
$9,592,764 Обс.
30 квітня
$3,383,913 Обс.
5%
31 травня
$619,007 Обс.
9%
30 червня
$491,316 Обс.
17%
31 грудня
$1,868,078 Обс.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Supreme Leader after his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026, has not appeared publicly since early March, prompting U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments that he is unconscious or severely wounded and receiving treatment in Qom. This absence, amid indirect state media statements attributed to him, has fueled concerns of a power vacuum within Iran's clerical and IRGC leadership structures. The Assembly of Experts' rapid succession bypassed traditional procedures, and ongoing regional tensions, including potential Israeli strikes, heighten risks of further instability. Traders monitor for proof-of-life visuals or official addresses, which could clarify governance capacity before any year-end resolution deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,592,764Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Supreme Leader after his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026, has not appeared publicly since early March, prompting U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments that he is unconscious or severely wounded and receiving treatment in Qom. This absence, amid indirect state media statements attributed to him, has fueled concerns of a power vacuum within Iran's clerical and IRGC leadership structures. The Assembly of Experts' rapid succession bypassed traditional procedures, and ongoing regional tensions, including potential Israeli strikes, heighten risks of further instability. Traders monitor for proof-of-life visuals or official addresses, which could clarify governance capacity before any year-end resolution deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$9,592,764Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Supreme Leader after his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026, has not appeared publicly since early March, prompting U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments that he is unconscious or severely wounded and receiving treatment in Qom. This absence, amid indirect state media statements attributed to him, has fueled concerns of a power vacuum within Iran's clerical and IRGC leadership structures. The Assembly of Experts' rapid succession bypassed traditional procedures, and ongoing regional tensions, including potential Israeli strikes, heighten risks of further instability. Traders monitor for proof-of-life visuals or official addresses, which could clarify governance capacity before any year-end resolution deadlines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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