Traders assign the Federal Reserve a 98.6 percent implied probability of remaining intact through 2026 because abolition requires repealing the Federal Reserve Act via legislation that must clear both chambers of Congress and receive presidential approval. Introduced measures such as the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act have remained stalled in committee without advancing, while recent activity centers on narrower reforms including supervision restructuring, dual-mandate adjustments, and oversight of related agencies. Economic disruption risks and institutional continuity further discourage radical change. Even under unified government, support for full elimination stays marginal compared with targeted policy reviews. Late developments such as a severe financial crisis or unexpected congressional action could still shift odds before the 2027 deadline.