Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.2% implied probability against the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, reflecting the institution's deeply entrenched role as the U.S. central bank managing monetary policy, interest rates, and financial stability amid zero legislative momentum. Rep. Thomas Massie's Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act (H.R.1846), introduced in March 2025 alongside a Senate companion, has advanced no further than introduction, lacking committee hearings, bipartisan support, or White House backing—consistent with prior symbolic efforts that stalled. No developments in the past 30 days have shifted sentiment, underscoring the political and economic barriers to repeal. Tail risks include a severe crisis eroding Fed credibility or a populist midterm realignment in November 2026, though these remain remote given the wisdom-of-crowds pricing backed by real capital.