Persistent US-Iran tensions and IRGC threats drove sharply reduced vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz into late July 2026, with daily transits averaging well below the pre-crisis norm of roughly 60–100 ships amid attacks, naval interdictions, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. A June MoU briefly lifted some restrictions, enabling a partial rebound to around 28 daily transits in mid-July before renewed strikes and warnings reversed gains, pushing tanker volumes to multi-week lows and stranding hundreds of vessels. These dynamics elevated global oil freight rates and reinforced market pricing of sustained supply-chain risk, with trader attention focused on whether any sustained reopening would occur before the July 31 deadline amid fluctuating diplomatic signals and military posturing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
$1,804,778 Обс.
Jul 31, 2026
30+
No
40+
Yes
40+
No
50+
No
60+
No
80+
No
100+
No
$1,804,778 Обс.
30+
$525,006 Обс.
No
40+
$349,496 Обс.
Yes
40+
$254,672 Обс.
No
50+
$130,351 Обс.
No
60+
$288,057 Обс.
No
80+
$140,718 Обс.
No
100+
$116,478 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US-Iran tensions and IRGC threats drove sharply reduced vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz into late July 2026, with daily transits averaging well below the pre-crisis norm of roughly 60–100 ships amid attacks, naval interdictions, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. A June MoU briefly lifted some restrictions, enabling a partial rebound to around 28 daily transits in mid-July before renewed strikes and warnings reversed gains, pushing tanker volumes to multi-week lows and stranding hundreds of vessels. These dynamics elevated global oil freight rates and reinforced market pricing of sustained supply-chain risk, with trader attention focused on whether any sustained reopening would occur before the July 31 deadline amid fluctuating diplomatic signals and military posturing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 6, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,804,778Дата завершення
Jul 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 6, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US-Iran tensions and IRGC threats drove sharply reduced vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz into late July 2026, with daily transits averaging well below the pre-crisis norm of roughly 60–100 ships amid attacks, naval interdictions, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. A June MoU briefly lifted some restrictions, enabling a partial rebound to around 28 daily transits in mid-July before renewed strikes and warnings reversed gains, pushing tanker volumes to multi-week lows and stranding hundreds of vessels. These dynamics elevated global oil freight rates and reinforced market pricing of sustained supply-chain risk, with trader attention focused on whether any sustained reopening would occur before the July 31 deadline amid fluctuating diplomatic signals and military posturing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Обсяг
$1,804,778Дата завершення
Jul 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 6, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Persistent US-Iran tensions and IRGC threats drove sharply reduced vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz into late July 2026, with daily transits averaging well below the pre-crisis norm of roughly 60–100 ships amid attacks, naval interdictions, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. A June MoU briefly lifted some restrictions, enabling a partial rebound to around 28 daily transits in mid-July before renewed strikes and warnings reversed gains, pushing tanker volumes to multi-week lows and stranding hundreds of vessels. These dynamics elevated global oil freight rates and reinforced market pricing of sustained supply-chain risk, with trader attention focused on whether any sustained reopening would occur before the July 31 deadline amid fluctuating diplomatic signals and military posturing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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