Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's current term, secured in the 2023 election, constitutionally runs until the next presidential vote no later than May 2028, anchoring trader consensus at 89.5% against his exit by year-end 2026 absent a snap election, resignation, or removal. In April 2026, Erdoğan firmly rejected opposition calls for early or interim elections, emphasizing no such plans amid AKP parliamentary control. Health rumors from February were swiftly dismissed by the presidency, while his January declaration of 2026 as a "year of reform" signals active governance. Intensifying succession debates reflect his age but no verified catalysts for premature departure; low-probability shifts would require major scandal, health crisis, or constitutional upheaval.