President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current term runs through 2028 under Turkey’s presidential system, with no scheduled election before May of that year, forming the core reason traders assign just an 8.5% chance he leaves office by the end of 2026. Recent court rulings in May 2026 that removed opposition CHP leaders and ongoing legal actions against rivals, including the 2025 detention of Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, have further consolidated institutional control and limited near-term challenges. Government statements continue to reject unverified health concerns while Erdoğan maintains active diplomatic engagement, including calls with U.S. President Trump on regional issues. Speculation about early elections or constitutional amendments to extend eligibility remains longer-term and uncertain, leaving little immediate pressure for departure before the market’s cutoff.