**Persistent high pressure and northeast flow are driving the strong market consensus for a 94-95°F high in Houston on September 23.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and multiple model runs project afternoon maxima in the mid- to upper 90s under mostly sunny skies, with limited moisture and only isolated shower chances keeping temperatures from surging higher. Recent days of 97-99°F readings confirm the warm airmass in place, consistent with late-September climatology when highs near 90°F are more typical. The 98% implied probability reflects trader confidence in these verified forecast products and the low likelihood of significant cooling from cloud cover or convection. A stronger sea breeze or unexpected thunderstorm development could trim the peak into the low 90s, though current steering patterns and dew points make that outcome improbable before official station data finalize the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on September 23?
Highest temperature in Houston on September 23?
94-95°F 99%
96-97°F 4%
98-99°F <1%
100-101°F <1%
$17,342 Vol.
$17,342 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
99%
96-97°F
4%
98-99°F
1%
100-101°F
1%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 99%
96-97°F 4%
98-99°F <1%
100-101°F <1%
$17,342 Vol.
$17,342 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
85°F or below
$246 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$95 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$274 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$2,659 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$2,843 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$4,716 Vol.
99%
96-97°F
$3,838 Vol.
4%
98-99°F
$1,702 Vol.
1%
100-101°F
$432 Vol.
1%
102-103°F
$384 Vol.
<1%
104°F or higher
$152 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high pressure and northeast flow are driving the strong market consensus for a 94-95°F high in Houston on September 23.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and multiple model runs project afternoon maxima in the mid- to upper 90s under mostly sunny skies, with limited moisture and only isolated shower chances keeping temperatures from surging higher. Recent days of 97-99°F readings confirm the warm airmass in place, consistent with late-September climatology when highs near 90°F are more typical. The 98% implied probability reflects trader confidence in these verified forecast products and the low likelihood of significant cooling from cloud cover or convection. A stronger sea breeze or unexpected thunderstorm development could trim the peak into the low 90s, though current steering patterns and dew points make that outcome improbable before official station data finalize the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$17,342End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high pressure and northeast flow are driving the strong market consensus for a 94-95°F high in Houston on September 23.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and multiple model runs project afternoon maxima in the mid- to upper 90s under mostly sunny skies, with limited moisture and only isolated shower chances keeping temperatures from surging higher. Recent days of 97-99°F readings confirm the warm airmass in place, consistent with late-September climatology when highs near 90°F are more typical. The 98% implied probability reflects trader confidence in these verified forecast products and the low likelihood of significant cooling from cloud cover or convection. A stronger sea breeze or unexpected thunderstorm development could trim the peak into the low 90s, though current steering patterns and dew points make that outcome improbable before official station data finalize the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,342End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47de9d...**Persistent high pressure and northeast flow are driving the strong market consensus for a 94-95°F high in Houston on September 23.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and multiple model runs project afternoon maxima in the mid- to upper 90s under mostly sunny skies, with limited moisture and only isolated shower chances keeping temperatures from surging higher. Recent days of 97-99°F readings confirm the warm airmass in place, consistent with late-September climatology when highs near 90°F are more typical. The 98% implied probability reflects trader confidence in these verified forecast products and the low likelihood of significant cooling from cloud cover or convection. A stronger sea breeze or unexpected thunderstorm development could trim the peak into the low 90s, though current steering patterns and dew points make that outcome improbable before official station data finalize the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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