US intelligence assessments indicate that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan remains unlikely before 2028, citing delays in People’s Liberation Army amphibious readiness amid anti-corruption efforts and Beijing’s interest in Taiwan’s 2028 elections potentially producing a more accommodating government. This view aligns with sustained but reduced air incursions, routine coast guard patrols, and gray-zone pressure rather than preparations for immediate large-scale landings. Recent Xi-Trump diplomacy extended trade truces without altering core Taiwan policy, reinforcing trader expectations that Beijing prioritizes non-military leverage. With roughly three months until year-end, the narrow timeframe further limits realistic pathways to full invasion absent sudden leadership shifts or major miscalculations during exercises.