**Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions a maximum of 19–20°C as the most probable outcome for Amsterdam on September 22, supporting the 67% market-implied probability on 20°C.** Overcast skies and light southwesterly winds are limiting daytime heating, keeping temperatures close to the long-term September average of roughly 18–19°C while suppressing any significant warming trend. Recent observations from Schiphol show morning readings in the low-to-mid teens Celsius rising only gradually, consistent with stable high-pressure influence and minimal advection of warmer air. Updated short-range guidance shows little spread across ensembles, with only modest upside risk to 21°C if breaks in cloud cover develop, aligning with the secondary 13.5% odds on that outcome. Traders are weighting official forecast guidance and historical analogs heavily as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 22?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 22?
20°C 68%
19°C 15%
21°C 15%
18°C 4%
NEW
$15,708 Vol.
NEW
$15,708 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
4%
19°C
15%
20°C
68%
21°C
15%
22°C
2%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 68%
19°C 15%
21°C 15%
18°C 4%
NEW
$15,708 Vol.
NEW
$15,708 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
15°C or below
$116 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$241 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$337 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,067 Vol.
4%
19°C
$2,507 Vol.
15%
20°C
$4,742 Vol.
68%
21°C
$2,620 Vol.
15%
22°C
$1,456 Vol.
2%
23°C
$339 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$116 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$168 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions a maximum of 19–20°C as the most probable outcome for Amsterdam on September 22, supporting the 67% market-implied probability on 20°C.**
Overcast skies and light southwesterly winds are limiting daytime heating, keeping temperatures close to the long-term September average of roughly 18–19°C while suppressing any significant warming trend. Recent observations from Schiphol show morning readings in the low-to-mid teens Celsius rising only gradually, consistent with stable high-pressure influence and minimal advection of warmer air. Updated short-range guidance shows little spread across ensembles, with only modest upside risk to 21°C if breaks in cloud cover develop, aligning with the secondary 13.5% odds on that outcome. Traders are weighting official forecast guidance and historical analogs heavily as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$15,708End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions a maximum of 19–20°C as the most probable outcome for Amsterdam on September 22, supporting the 67% market-implied probability on 20°C.**
Overcast skies and light southwesterly winds are limiting daytime heating, keeping temperatures close to the long-term September average of roughly 18–19°C while suppressing any significant warming trend. Recent observations from Schiphol show morning readings in the low-to-mid teens Celsius rising only gradually, consistent with stable high-pressure influence and minimal advection of warmer air. Updated short-range guidance shows little spread across ensembles, with only modest upside risk to 21°C if breaks in cloud cover develop, aligning with the secondary 13.5% odds on that outcome. Traders are weighting official forecast guidance and historical analogs heavily as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,708End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions a maximum of 19–20°C as the most probable outcome for Amsterdam on September 22, supporting the 67% market-implied probability on 20°C.** Overcast skies and light southwesterly winds are limiting daytime heating, keeping temperatures close to the long-term September average of roughly 18–19°C while suppressing any significant warming trend. Recent observations from Schiphol show morning readings in the low-to-mid teens Celsius rising only gradually, consistent with stable high-pressure influence and minimal advection of warmer air. Updated short-range guidance shows little spread across ensembles, with only modest upside risk to 21°C if breaks in cloud cover develop, aligning with the secondary 13.5% odds on that outcome. Traders are weighting official forecast guidance and historical analogs heavily as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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