Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against President Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by year's end, driven by the absence of any affirmative signals from the White House despite her repeated appeals for clemency. Maxwell's lawyer confirmed on March 13 she continues seeking relief, following February congressional testimony where she pleaded the Fifth but offered exonerating statements on Trump in exchange for commutation—prompting bipartisan opposition like Sen. Rosen's resolution against clemency. Trump previously stated in October 2025 he would "have to take a look," but no DOJ action or executive moves have followed amid her upheld 20-year sex-trafficking conviction and Epstein ties' political toxicity. With 2026 pardons possible but barriers high, markets price low likelihood barring late-breaking developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$510,104 Объем
$510,104 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$510,104 Объем
$510,104 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against President Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by year's end, driven by the absence of any affirmative signals from the White House despite her repeated appeals for clemency. Maxwell's lawyer confirmed on March 13 she continues seeking relief, following February congressional testimony where she pleaded the Fifth but offered exonerating statements on Trump in exchange for commutation—prompting bipartisan opposition like Sen. Rosen's resolution against clemency. Trump previously stated in October 2025 he would "have to take a look," but no DOJ action or executive moves have followed amid her upheld 20-year sex-trafficking conviction and Epstein ties' political toxicity. With 2026 pardons possible but barriers high, markets price low likelihood barring late-breaking developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Объем
$510,104Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against President Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by year's end, driven by the absence of any affirmative signals from the White House despite her repeated appeals for clemency. Maxwell's lawyer confirmed on March 13 she continues seeking relief, following February congressional testimony where she pleaded the Fifth but offered exonerating statements on Trump in exchange for commutation—prompting bipartisan opposition like Sen. Rosen's resolution against clemency. Trump previously stated in October 2025 he would "have to take a look," but no DOJ action or executive moves have followed amid her upheld 20-year sex-trafficking conviction and Epstein ties' political toxicity. With 2026 pardons possible but barriers high, markets price low likelihood barring late-breaking developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$510,104Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against President Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by year's end, driven by the absence of any affirmative signals from the White House despite her repeated appeals for clemency. Maxwell's lawyer confirmed on March 13 she continues seeking relief, following February congressional testimony where she pleaded the Fifth but offered exonerating statements on Trump in exchange for commutation—prompting bipartisan opposition like Sen. Rosen's resolution against clemency. Trump previously stated in October 2025 he would "have to take a look," but no DOJ action or executive moves have followed amid her upheld 20-year sex-trafficking conviction and Epstein ties' political toxicity. With 2026 pardons possible but barriers high, markets price low likelihood barring late-breaking developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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