Market icon
Мир·Иран

Следующий верховный лидер Ирана?

Market icon
Мир·Иран

Следующий верховный лидер Ирана?

Моджтаба Хаменеи 51.6%

Алиреза Арафи 12.0%

Нет до 30 июня 6.3%

Должность упразднена 5.7%

Polymarket

$22,621,076 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи 51.6%

Алиреза Арафи 12.0%

Нет до 30 июня 6.3%

Должность упразднена 5.7%

Polymarket

$22,621,076 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи

$5,947,323 Объем

52%

Алиреза Арафи

$1,931,948 Объем

12%

Нет до 30 июня

$836,300 Объем

6%

Должность упразднена

$1,242,520 Объем

6%

Хасан Хомейни

$724,580 Объем

3%

Садек Лариджани

$584,084 Объем

3%

Голям-Хоссейн Мохсени-Эжеи

$603,139 Объем

3%

Хасан Рухани

$657,855 Объем

2%

Али Лариджани

$851,779 Объем

2%

Реза Пехлеви

$791,393 Объем

1%

Мухаммад Мирбакили

$539,639 Объем

<1%

Мохсен Араки

$446,635 Объем

<1%

Али Асгар Хеджази

$356,069 Объем

<1%

Ахмад Хатами

$278,712 Объем

<1%

Масуд Пезешкиан

$464,498 Объем

<1%

Хашем Хоссейни Бушехри

$497,315 Объем

<1%

Мохаммад-Реза Модарреси Язди

$371,314 Объем

<1%

Мохсен Куми

$339,104 Объем

<1%

Мариам Раджави

$250,634 Объем

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавиан

$141,331 Объем

<1%

Навид Шомали

$205,110 Объем

<1%

Али Мотахари

$245,686 Объем

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммади

$194,846 Объем

<1%

Мохаммад Хатами

$344,229 Объем

<1%

Мохаммад Хади Газанфари Хансари

$259,062 Объем

<1%

Насир Хоссейни

$212,664 Объем

<1%

Аббас Арагчи

$170,030 Объем

<1%

Хассан Шариатмадари

$223,909 Объем

<1%

Массуд Раджави

$249,715 Объем

<1%

Реза Пирзаде

$221,172 Объем

<1%

Мустафа Хиджри

$184,381 Объем

<1%

Голам-Али Хаддад-Адель

$221,360 Объем

<1%

Садег Махсули

$226,768 Объем

<1%

Саид Джалили

$194,481 Объем

<1%

Махмуд Ахмадинежад

$429,211 Объем

<1%

Мохаммад-Багер Галибаф

$321,820 Объем

<1%

Мохаммад Ясреби

$143,311 Объем

<1%

Халиль Мобашер Кашани

$146,198 Объем

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейни Хорасани

$228,884 Объем

<1%

Ахмад Вахиди

$342,067 Объем

<1%

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$22,621,076
Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 4:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts. This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei. Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market. If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”. Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Следующий верховный лидер Ирана?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 40+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Моджтаба Хаменеи" at 52%, followed by "Алиреза Арафи" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Следующий верховный лидер Ирана?" has generated $22.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Следующий верховный лидер Ирана?," browse the 40+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Следующий верховный лидер Ирана?" is "Моджтаба Хаменеи" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Алиреза Арафи" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Следующий верховный лидер Ирана?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.