Traders overwhelmingly back Anthropic at 97.9% implied probability for the second-best AI model by March 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 holding firm second place on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and similar leaderboards behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 or Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. Anthropic's aggressive 2026 shipping cadence—including computer-use capabilities, 1M-token context windows, voice mode, and persistent memory—has solidified competitive positioning amid rivals' recent releases, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on benchmark Elo stability. With resolution imminent, volatility is low, though a surprise xAI Grok 4.20 update or DeepSeek V3.2 surge could challenge if leaderboard battles intensify in the final days.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет вторую лучшую модель ИИ в конце марта?
Какая компания имеет вторую лучшую модель ИИ в конце марта?
Anthropic 97.8%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$527,277 Объем
$527,277 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.8%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$527,277 Объем
$527,277 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,677 Объем
98%
xAI
$53,783 Объем
1%
DeepSeek
$151,979 Объем
<1%
$122,088 Объем
<1%
OpenAI
$39,625 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$0 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$0 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$0 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$0 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$0 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders overwhelmingly back Anthropic at 97.9% implied probability for the second-best AI model by March 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 holding firm second place on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and similar leaderboards behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 or Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. Anthropic's aggressive 2026 shipping cadence—including computer-use capabilities, 1M-token context windows, voice mode, and persistent memory—has solidified competitive positioning amid rivals' recent releases, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on benchmark Elo stability. With resolution imminent, volatility is low, though a surprise xAI Grok 4.20 update or DeepSeek V3.2 surge could challenge if leaderboard battles intensify in the final days.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$527,277Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders overwhelmingly back Anthropic at 97.9% implied probability for the second-best AI model by March 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 holding firm second place on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and similar leaderboards behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 or Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. Anthropic's aggressive 2026 shipping cadence—including computer-use capabilities, 1M-token context windows, voice mode, and persistent memory—has solidified competitive positioning amid rivals' recent releases, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on benchmark Elo stability. With resolution imminent, volatility is low, though a surprise xAI Grok 4.20 update or DeepSeek V3.2 surge could challenge if leaderboard battles intensify in the final days.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$527,277Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders overwhelmingly back Anthropic at 97.9% implied probability for the second-best AI model by March 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 holding firm second place on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and similar leaderboards behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 or Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. Anthropic's aggressive 2026 shipping cadence—including computer-use capabilities, 1M-token context windows, voice mode, and persistent memory—has solidified competitive positioning amid rivals' recent releases, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on benchmark Elo stability. With resolution imminent, volatility is low, though a surprise xAI Grok 4.20 update or DeepSeek V3.2 surge could challenge if leaderboard battles intensify in the final days.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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