Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant 97.5% implied probability on Polymarket for owning the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by March 31, as their non-thinking variant holds #2 at 1500 Elo—trailing only their own thinking variant at 1504—following the March 25 update. This positioning stems from consistent outperformance in crowdsourced blind battles across reasoning, coding, and creative writing, where Claude's long-context handling and safety-aligned outputs have garnered superior user votes over rivals. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview lags at #3 (1493 Elo), xAI's Grok 4.20 beta at #4 (1491, preliminary), with minimal shifts in the past week. A late Grok or Gemini update could challenge this if it sparks rapid Elo gains before resolution, though tight timelines limit upset potential.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет вторую лучшую модель ИИ в конце марта?
Какая компания имеет вторую лучшую модель ИИ в конце марта?
Anthropic 97.5%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$526,565 Объем
$526,565 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.5%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$526,565 Объем
$526,565 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,677 Объем
98%
xAI
$53,073 Объем
1%
DeepSeek
$151,979 Объем
<1%
$122,088 Объем
<1%
OpenAI
$39,623 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$0 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$0 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$0 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$0 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$0 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant 97.5% implied probability on Polymarket for owning the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by March 31, as their non-thinking variant holds #2 at 1500 Elo—trailing only their own thinking variant at 1504—following the March 25 update. This positioning stems from consistent outperformance in crowdsourced blind battles across reasoning, coding, and creative writing, where Claude's long-context handling and safety-aligned outputs have garnered superior user votes over rivals. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview lags at #3 (1493 Elo), xAI's Grok 4.20 beta at #4 (1491, preliminary), with minimal shifts in the past week. A late Grok or Gemini update could challenge this if it sparks rapid Elo gains before resolution, though tight timelines limit upset potential.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$526,565Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant 97.5% implied probability on Polymarket for owning the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by March 31, as their non-thinking variant holds #2 at 1500 Elo—trailing only their own thinking variant at 1504—following the March 25 update. This positioning stems from consistent outperformance in crowdsourced blind battles across reasoning, coding, and creative writing, where Claude's long-context handling and safety-aligned outputs have garnered superior user votes over rivals. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview lags at #3 (1493 Elo), xAI's Grok 4.20 beta at #4 (1491, preliminary), with minimal shifts in the past week. A late Grok or Gemini update could challenge this if it sparks rapid Elo gains before resolution, though tight timelines limit upset potential.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$526,565Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant 97.5% implied probability on Polymarket for owning the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by March 31, as their non-thinking variant holds #2 at 1500 Elo—trailing only their own thinking variant at 1504—following the March 25 update. This positioning stems from consistent outperformance in crowdsourced blind battles across reasoning, coding, and creative writing, where Claude's long-context handling and safety-aligned outputs have garnered superior user votes over rivals. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview lags at #3 (1493 Elo), xAI's Grok 4.20 beta at #4 (1491, preliminary), with minimal shifts in the past week. A late Grok or Gemini update could challenge this if it sparks rapid Elo gains before resolution, though tight timelines limit upset potential.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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