Aaron Flint holds a clear edge in trader consensus for Montana’s open 1st District seat, reflecting the district’s Republican lean and the campaign’s emphasis on Forstag’s prior lobbying record for groups including the ACLU and Planned Parenthood. Recent polling from late September shows the candidates essentially tied at 45-46 percent each, underscoring the race’s competitiveness in a district that supported Donald Trump by double digits in the prior cycle. Flint has highlighted Forstag’s support for local tax measures and other progressive priorities, while Forstag stresses affordability, public lands, and his background as a smokejumper and union leader. With early voting underway and Election Day set for November 3, the market pricing aligns with historical patterns favoring Republicans in this western Montana constituency.