Incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke's March 2 retirement announcement opened Montana's 1st Congressional District—an R+5 seat he won by eight points in 2024—triggering crowded primaries on both sides and fueling trader consensus for a tight general election race. Republicans feature Aaron Flint with endorsements from Zinke, Gov. Gianforte, and Trump, alongside Sec. of State Christi Jacobsen and Al Olszewski, while Democrats pit Ryan Busse against Matt Rains, Sam Forstag, and Russ Cleveland in a contest eyed by the DCCC as a flip opportunity. Forecasters rate it Likely Republican amid urban Democratic strength in Missoula and Bozeman, but pre-retirement polls showed Zinke below 50% against top Democrats. June 2 primaries, fundraising edges, and national midterm dynamics could tip the balance before the November 3 general.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей MT-01
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей MT-01
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Республиканская партия
51%
Демократическая партия
50%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
51%
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
50%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke's March 2 retirement announcement opened Montana's 1st Congressional District—an R+5 seat he won by eight points in 2024—triggering crowded primaries on both sides and fueling trader consensus for a tight general election race. Republicans feature Aaron Flint with endorsements from Zinke, Gov. Gianforte, and Trump, alongside Sec. of State Christi Jacobsen and Al Olszewski, while Democrats pit Ryan Busse against Matt Rains, Sam Forstag, and Russ Cleveland in a contest eyed by the DCCC as a flip opportunity. Forecasters rate it Likely Republican amid urban Democratic strength in Missoula and Bozeman, but pre-retirement polls showed Zinke below 50% against top Democrats. June 2 primaries, fundraising edges, and national midterm dynamics could tip the balance before the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke's March 2 retirement announcement opened Montana's 1st Congressional District—an R+5 seat he won by eight points in 2024—triggering crowded primaries on both sides and fueling trader consensus for a tight general election race. Republicans feature Aaron Flint with endorsements from Zinke, Gov. Gianforte, and Trump, alongside Sec. of State Christi Jacobsen and Al Olszewski, while Democrats pit Ryan Busse against Matt Rains, Sam Forstag, and Russ Cleveland in a contest eyed by the DCCC as a flip opportunity. Forecasters rate it Likely Republican amid urban Democratic strength in Missoula and Bozeman, but pre-retirement polls showed Zinke below 50% against top Democrats. June 2 primaries, fundraising edges, and national midterm dynamics could tip the balance before the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke's March 2 retirement announcement opened Montana's 1st Congressional District—an R+5 seat he won by eight points in 2024—triggering crowded primaries on both sides and fueling trader consensus for a tight general election race. Republicans feature Aaron Flint with endorsements from Zinke, Gov. Gianforte, and Trump, alongside Sec. of State Christi Jacobsen and Al Olszewski, while Democrats pit Ryan Busse against Matt Rains, Sam Forstag, and Russ Cleveland in a contest eyed by the DCCC as a flip opportunity. Forecasters rate it Likely Republican amid urban Democratic strength in Missoula and Bozeman, but pre-retirement polls showed Zinke below 50% against top Democrats. June 2 primaries, fundraising edges, and national midterm dynamics could tip the balance before the November 3 general.
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