The retirement of incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke has transformed Montana’s 1st Congressional District into an open-seat contest in a district with an R+5 partisan voting index, fueling trader sentiment that keeps Republican and Democratic win probabilities nearly even. Multiple candidates have entered both primaries ahead of the June 2 vote, with Democrats fielding contenders such as Ryan Busse who demonstrate crossover appeal and substantial early fundraising in a district encompassing Democratic strongholds in Missoula and Bozeman. Recent internal polling has shown narrow margins, underscoring how the absence of incumbency and the district’s mix of rural conservative areas with urban and reservation voting blocs sustain the close race. National midterm dynamics and primary outcomes remain the primary variables that could shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей MT-01
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей MT-01
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
44%
Демократическая партия
48%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$1,011 Объем
44%
Демократическая партия
$392 Объем
48%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The retirement of incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke has transformed Montana’s 1st Congressional District into an open-seat contest in a district with an R+5 partisan voting index, fueling trader sentiment that keeps Republican and Democratic win probabilities nearly even. Multiple candidates have entered both primaries ahead of the June 2 vote, with Democrats fielding contenders such as Ryan Busse who demonstrate crossover appeal and substantial early fundraising in a district encompassing Democratic strongholds in Missoula and Bozeman. Recent internal polling has shown narrow margins, underscoring how the absence of incumbency and the district’s mix of rural conservative areas with urban and reservation voting blocs sustain the close race. National midterm dynamics and primary outcomes remain the primary variables that could shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Объем
$1,402Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The retirement of incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke has transformed Montana’s 1st Congressional District into an open-seat contest in a district with an R+5 partisan voting index, fueling trader sentiment that keeps Republican and Democratic win probabilities nearly even. Multiple candidates have entered both primaries ahead of the June 2 vote, with Democrats fielding contenders such as Ryan Busse who demonstrate crossover appeal and substantial early fundraising in a district encompassing Democratic strongholds in Missoula and Bozeman. Recent internal polling has shown narrow margins, underscoring how the absence of incumbency and the district’s mix of rural conservative areas with urban and reservation voting blocs sustain the close race. National midterm dynamics and primary outcomes remain the primary variables that could shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$1,402Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The retirement of incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke has transformed Montana’s 1st Congressional District into an open-seat contest in a district with an R+5 partisan voting index, fueling trader sentiment that keeps Republican and Democratic win probabilities nearly even. Multiple candidates have entered both primaries ahead of the June 2 vote, with Democrats fielding contenders such as Ryan Busse who demonstrate crossover appeal and substantial early fundraising in a district encompassing Democratic strongholds in Missoula and Bozeman. Recent internal polling has shown narrow margins, underscoring how the absence of incumbency and the district’s mix of rural conservative areas with urban and reservation voting blocs sustain the close race. National midterm dynamics and primary outcomes remain the primary variables that could shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы