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Выборы·Ближний Восток

Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане

Market icon
Выборы·Ближний Восток

Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане

Движение достоинства (ДД) 18.8%

Ливанские силы (ЛС) 17%

Исламская группа (ИГ) 9.2%

ReLebanon 8.2%

Polymarket

$319,246 Объем

Движение достоинства (ДД) 18.8%

Ливанские силы (ЛС) 17%

Исламская группа (ИГ) 9.2%

ReLebanon 8.2%

Polymarket

$319,246 Объем

Движение достоинства (ДД)

$0 Объем

19%

Ливанские силы (ЛС)

$91,896 Объем

17%

Исламская группа (ИГ)

$0 Объем

9%

ReLebanon

$0 Объем

8%

Партия Катаиб (Катаиб)

$0 Объем

8%

Движение независимости (ДН)

$0 Объем

8%

Свободное патриотическое движение (СПД)

$70,854 Объем

7%

Движение Амаль (Амаль)

$22,319 Объем

6%

Национальная либеральная партия (НЛП)

$0 Объем

6%

Альянс Ватани (Watani)

$0 Объем

6%

Арабская социалистическая партия Баас в Ливане (Баас)

$0 Объем

5%

Народная Насеристская организация (ПНО)

$1,553 Объем

5%

Хезболла (Хезб)

$38,657 Объем

5%

Армянская революционная федерация (АРФ)

$1,423 Объем

5%

Хатт Ахмар

$2,127 Объем

4%

Партия национального диалога (ПНД)

$39,261 Объем

3%

Партия Такаддом

$0 Объем

2%

Движение Марада (MM)

$1,460 Объем

16%

Прогрессивно-социалистическая партия (ПСП)

$23,378 Объем

1%

Ассоциация исламских благотворительных проектов (ICPA)

$1,435 Объем

15%

Партия Союз (ПС)

$1,567 Объем

6%

Лана – Социал-демократическая партия (Лана)

$2,818 Объем

25%

Партия Мада (Mada)

$20,500 Объем

30%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Объем
$319,246
Дата окончания
May 31, 2026
Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Партия Мада (Mada)" at 30%, followed by "Лана – Социал-демократическая партия (Лана)" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане" has generated $319.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане" is "Партия Мада (Mada)" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Лана – Социал-демократическая партия (Лана)" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.