SpaceX dominates with an 89% implied probability as the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its staggering $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 tender offer—dwarfing rivals—and steady Starlink revenue growth amid successful Starship orbital tests. Traders see Elon Musk's reluctance to IPO fading if regulatory pressures or capital needs mount post-milestones like Mars missions. xAI trails at 25.5% on its rapid ascent to $50 billion valuation via recent funding, fueled by Grok model releases challenging OpenAI, though Musk's aversion to public markets tempers odds. OpenAI (4.9%) and Anthropic (2.9%) lag due to unresolved nonprofit-to-profit restructurings and AI regulatory scrutiny, while legacy unicorns like Stripe and Databricks face dimmer paths amid maturing fintech and data analytics sectors. Key watch: SpaceX's Q1 2025 Starlink updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКрупнейшее IPO по рыночной капитализации в 2026 году?
Крупнейшее IPO по рыночной капитализации в 2026 году?
SpaceX 89%
OpenAI 4.9%
Anthropic 2.9%
Discord <1%
$1,167,550 Объем
$1,167,550 Объем

SpaceX
89%

OpenAI
5%

Anthropic
3%

Discord
1%

Kraken
1%

Databricks
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Stripe
<1%

SHEIN
<1%

Revolut
<1%

Waymo
<1%

Perplexity AI
<1%
SpaceX 89%
OpenAI 4.9%
Anthropic 2.9%
Discord <1%
$1,167,550 Объем
$1,167,550 Объем

SpaceX
89%

OpenAI
5%

Anthropic
3%

Discord
1%

Kraken
1%

Databricks
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Stripe
<1%

SHEIN
<1%

Revolut
<1%

Waymo
<1%

Perplexity AI
<1%
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX dominates with an 89% implied probability as the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its staggering $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 tender offer—dwarfing rivals—and steady Starlink revenue growth amid successful Starship orbital tests. Traders see Elon Musk's reluctance to IPO fading if regulatory pressures or capital needs mount post-milestones like Mars missions. xAI trails at 25.5% on its rapid ascent to $50 billion valuation via recent funding, fueled by Grok model releases challenging OpenAI, though Musk's aversion to public markets tempers odds. OpenAI (4.9%) and Anthropic (2.9%) lag due to unresolved nonprofit-to-profit restructurings and AI regulatory scrutiny, while legacy unicorns like Stripe and Databricks face dimmer paths amid maturing fintech and data analytics sectors. Key watch: SpaceX's Q1 2025 Starlink updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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