Trader sentiment on the Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution reflects de-escalation after Israel's targeted airstrikes on October 26 against Iranian missile production and air defense sites, following Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles in retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. These limited strikes avoided nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure, prompting Iran to downplay damage without immediate counteraction, signaling mutual restraint amid US diplomatic pressure. Ongoing proxy clashes via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen sustain tensions, but no major escalation has occurred since late October. The US presidential election on November 5 could influence dynamics, with candidates signaling varied approaches to deterrence and negotiations; a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough remains elusive absent verified de-escalation signals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКонфликт между Ираном и Израилем/США закончится...?
Конфликт между Ираном и Израилем/США закончится...?
$7,657,575 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
31 марта
3%
15 апреля
23%
7 апреля
15%
30 апреля
36%
15 мая
51%
30 июня
67%
31 декабря
83%
$7,657,575 Объем
31 марта
$4,052,709 Объем
3%
15 апреля
$861,485 Объем
23%
7 апреля
$47,482 Объем
15%
30 апреля
$637,832 Объем
36%
15 мая
$1,083,041 Объем
51%
30 июня
$781,776 Объем
67%
31 декабря
$193,249 Объем
83%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Trader sentiment on the Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution reflects de-escalation after Israel's targeted airstrikes on October 26 against Iranian missile production and air defense sites, following Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles in retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. These limited strikes avoided nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure, prompting Iran to downplay damage without immediate counteraction, signaling mutual restraint amid US diplomatic pressure. Ongoing proxy clashes via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen sustain tensions, but no major escalation has occurred since late October. The US presidential election on November 5 could influence dynamics, with candidates signaling varied approaches to deterrence and negotiations; a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough remains elusive absent verified de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Открытие рынка: Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Объем
$7,657,575Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Trader sentiment on the Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution reflects de-escalation after Israel's targeted airstrikes on October 26 against Iranian missile production and air defense sites, following Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles in retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. These limited strikes avoided nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure, prompting Iran to downplay damage without immediate counteraction, signaling mutual restraint amid US diplomatic pressure. Ongoing proxy clashes via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen sustain tensions, but no major escalation has occurred since late October. The US presidential election on November 5 could influence dynamics, with candidates signaling varied approaches to deterrence and negotiations; a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough remains elusive absent verified de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Объем
$7,657,575Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on the Iran-Israel/US conflict resolution reflects de-escalation after Israel's targeted airstrikes on October 26 against Iranian missile production and air defense sites, following Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles in retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. These limited strikes avoided nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure, prompting Iran to downplay damage without immediate counteraction, signaling mutual restraint amid US diplomatic pressure. Ongoing proxy clashes via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen sustain tensions, but no major escalation has occurred since late October. The US presidential election on November 5 could influence dynamics, with candidates signaling varied approaches to deterrence and negotiations; a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough remains elusive absent verified de-escalation signals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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