Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 90.5% implied probability for Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Ed Case's dominant August primary victory with 82% of the vote against intra-party challengers, underscoring his entrenched support in this reliably blue district (Cook Partisan Voter Index D+14). The Republican nominee, Richard Walter, advanced unopposed in their primary but faces steep historical barriers, as no GOP candidate has held the seat since 1992 amid Hawaii's strong Democratic lean and low partisan volatility. Recent polling aggregates show Case leading by wide margins, with no major shifts from campaign events or national trends in the past 30 days. While commanding, odds could shift on late-breaking scandals, Case health issues, or an improbable Republican turnout surge, though structural factors like incumbency and district demographics make upsets rare ahead of the November 5 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHI-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
HI-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
91%
Республиканская партия
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
91%
Республиканская партия
$2,118 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 90.5% implied probability for Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Ed Case's dominant August primary victory with 82% of the vote against intra-party challengers, underscoring his entrenched support in this reliably blue district (Cook Partisan Voter Index D+14). The Republican nominee, Richard Walter, advanced unopposed in their primary but faces steep historical barriers, as no GOP candidate has held the seat since 1992 amid Hawaii's strong Democratic lean and low partisan volatility. Recent polling aggregates show Case leading by wide margins, with no major shifts from campaign events or national trends in the past 30 days. While commanding, odds could shift on late-breaking scandals, Case health issues, or an improbable Republican turnout surge, though structural factors like incumbency and district demographics make upsets rare ahead of the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Объем
$2,118Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 90.5% implied probability for Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Ed Case's dominant August primary victory with 82% of the vote against intra-party challengers, underscoring his entrenched support in this reliably blue district (Cook Partisan Voter Index D+14). The Republican nominee, Richard Walter, advanced unopposed in their primary but faces steep historical barriers, as no GOP candidate has held the seat since 1992 amid Hawaii's strong Democratic lean and low partisan volatility. Recent polling aggregates show Case leading by wide margins, with no major shifts from campaign events or national trends in the past 30 days. While commanding, odds could shift on late-breaking scandals, Case health issues, or an improbable Republican turnout surge, though structural factors like incumbency and district demographics make upsets rare ahead of the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$2,118Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 90.5% implied probability for Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Ed Case's dominant August primary victory with 82% of the vote against intra-party challengers, underscoring his entrenched support in this reliably blue district (Cook Partisan Voter Index D+14). The Republican nominee, Richard Walter, advanced unopposed in their primary but faces steep historical barriers, as no GOP candidate has held the seat since 1992 amid Hawaii's strong Democratic lean and low partisan volatility. Recent polling aggregates show Case leading by wide margins, with no major shifts from campaign events or national trends in the past 30 days. While commanding, odds could shift on late-breaking scandals, Case health issues, or an improbable Republican turnout surge, though structural factors like incumbency and district demographics make upsets rare ahead of the November 5 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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