Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda (D) holds a commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+14, driving trader consensus to 90.5% for a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Tokuda faces no declared Democratic primary challengers ahead of the June 2 filing deadline and August 8 primary, while Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa trails significantly in fundraising ($502,000 cash on hand for Tokuda vs. $46,000 for Awa as of late 2025). No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days, reinforcing historical patterns where the last GOP win occurred in 1988. Upsets remain possible via a stronger Republican recruit, Tokuda scandal, health issues, or a national midterm wave favoring Republicans, though forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHI-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
HI-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
91%
Республиканская партия
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
91%
Республиканская партия
$2,118 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda (D) holds a commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+14, driving trader consensus to 90.5% for a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Tokuda faces no declared Democratic primary challengers ahead of the June 2 filing deadline and August 8 primary, while Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa trails significantly in fundraising ($502,000 cash on hand for Tokuda vs. $46,000 for Awa as of late 2025). No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days, reinforcing historical patterns where the last GOP win occurred in 1988. Upsets remain possible via a stronger Republican recruit, Tokuda scandal, health issues, or a national midterm wave favoring Republicans, though forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Объем
$2,118Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda (D) holds a commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+14, driving trader consensus to 90.5% for a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Tokuda faces no declared Democratic primary challengers ahead of the June 2 filing deadline and August 8 primary, while Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa trails significantly in fundraising ($502,000 cash on hand for Tokuda vs. $46,000 for Awa as of late 2025). No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days, reinforcing historical patterns where the last GOP win occurred in 1988. Upsets remain possible via a stronger Republican recruit, Tokuda scandal, health issues, or a national midterm wave favoring Republicans, though forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$2,118Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda (D) holds a commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+14, driving trader consensus to 90.5% for a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Tokuda faces no declared Democratic primary challengers ahead of the June 2 filing deadline and August 8 primary, while Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa trails significantly in fundraising ($502,000 cash on hand for Tokuda vs. $46,000 for Awa as of late 2025). No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days, reinforcing historical patterns where the last GOP win occurred in 1988. Upsets remain possible via a stronger Republican recruit, Tokuda scandal, health issues, or a national midterm wave favoring Republicans, though forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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