Trader consensus on Polymarket centers tightly on 1240-1359 X posts by Elon Musk in April 2026, with the 1320-1359 bin leading at 9.6% implied probability, directly extending March's resolved frontrunner range where markets hit 78.6% certainty on the same bucket amid daily bursts like 83 posts on March 22 and 66 over March 30-April 1. This reflects Elon's unwavering posting rhythm of 40-50 per day as a pop culture powerhouse, fueled by Tesla updates, political commentary, and viral engagements that amplify his platform dominance. The close contest among top bins highlights competitive dynamics from daily variance—event-driven spikes (e.g., Cybercab production news targeting April) versus potential lulls during travel—while early April tallies through the 30th will dictate momentum shifts in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено1320-1359 9.6%
1240-1279 9.3%
1280–1319 8.6%
1000-1039 8.0%
$4,495,268 Объем
$4,495,268 Объем
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40–59
<1%
60–79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100–119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140–159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240–259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320–339
<1%
340–359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380–399
<1%
400–419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440–459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540–559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600–619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
1%
840-879
<1%
880-919
4%
920-959
<1%
960-999
5%
1000-1039
8%
1040-1079
8%
1080-1119
5%
1120–1159
4%
1160-1199
6%
1200-1239
6%
1240-1279
9%
1280–1319
9%
1320-1359
10%
1360-1399
8%
1400–1439
7%
1440-1479
6%
1480–1519
5%
1520-1559
3%
1560–1599
3%
1600-1679
2%
1680-1759
1%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
1%
2000+
1%
1320-1359 9.6%
1240-1279 9.3%
1280–1319 8.6%
1000-1039 8.0%
$4,495,268 Объем
$4,495,268 Объем
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40–59
<1%
60–79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100–119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140–159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240–259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320–339
<1%
340–359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380–399
<1%
400–419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440–459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540–559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600–619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
1%
840-879
<1%
880-919
4%
920-959
<1%
960-999
5%
1000-1039
8%
1040-1079
8%
1080-1119
5%
1120–1159
4%
1160-1199
6%
1200-1239
6%
1240-1279
9%
1280–1319
9%
1320-1359
10%
1360-1399
8%
1400–1439
7%
1440-1479
6%
1480–1519
5%
1520-1559
3%
1560–1599
3%
1600-1679
2%
1680-1759
1%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
1%
2000+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers tightly on 1240-1359 X posts by Elon Musk in April 2026, with the 1320-1359 bin leading at 9.6% implied probability, directly extending March's resolved frontrunner range where markets hit 78.6% certainty on the same bucket amid daily bursts like 83 posts on March 22 and 66 over March 30-April 1. This reflects Elon's unwavering posting rhythm of 40-50 per day as a pop culture powerhouse, fueled by Tesla updates, political commentary, and viral engagements that amplify his platform dominance. The close contest among top bins highlights competitive dynamics from daily variance—event-driven spikes (e.g., Cybercab production news targeting April) versus potential lulls during travel—while early April tallies through the 30th will dictate momentum shifts in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы