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Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы

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Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы

Лула да Силва 5–10% 36%

Лула да Силва <5% 24%

Флавиу Болсонару <5% 13%

Флавио Болсонару 10%+ 9.9%

Polymarket
NEW

Лула да Силва 5–10% 36%

Лула да Силва <5% 24%

Флавиу Болсонару <5% 13%

Флавио Болсонару 10%+ 9.9%

Polymarket
NEW
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Лула да Силва 15%+

$2,869 Объем

4%

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Лула да Силва 10–15%

$921 Объем

4%

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Лула да Силва 5–10%

$1,132 Объем

48%

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Лула да Силва <5%

$831 Объем

33%

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Флавио Болсонару 10%+

$470 Объем

9%

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Флавио Болсонару 5–10%

$0 Объем

3%

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Флавиу Болсонару <5%

$0 Объем

13%

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Победа Ренана Сантоса

$0 Объем

6%

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Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса

$0 Объем

2%

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Победа Ратиньо Жуниора

$0 Объем

1%

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Другой

$0 Объем

6%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$6,223
Дата окончания
Oct 4, 2026
Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Лула да Силва 5–10%" at 48%, followed by "Лула да Силва <5%" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы" is "Лула да Силва 5–10%" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Лула да Силва <5%" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.