Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.7% implied probability against 1,000+ container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting persistent Red Sea security risks from ongoing Houthi attacks that have forced major carriers like Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. AIS tracking and Alphaliner data confirm January's mere 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—with further declines in February and March amid escalated threats and service suspensions announced March 1. This aggregates to well under 500 total, versus pre-2023 quarterly averages above 1,400. Tail risks include an improbable ceasefire enabling a late-quarter surge or SCA data revisions upward, though resolution hinges on official Q1 Authority statistics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено1k+ транзит контейнеровозов по Суэцкому каналу в 1 квартале 2026 года?
1k+ транзит контейнеровозов по Суэцкому каналу в 1 квартале 2026 года?
Да
$52,387 Объем
$52,387 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
Да
$52,387 Объем
$52,387 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.7% implied probability against 1,000+ container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting persistent Red Sea security risks from ongoing Houthi attacks that have forced major carriers like Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. AIS tracking and Alphaliner data confirm January's mere 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—with further declines in February and March amid escalated threats and service suspensions announced March 1. This aggregates to well under 500 total, versus pre-2023 quarterly averages above 1,400. Tail risks include an improbable ceasefire enabling a late-quarter surge or SCA data revisions upward, though resolution hinges on official Q1 Authority statistics.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Открытие рынка: Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
Объем
$52,387Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.7% implied probability against 1,000+ container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting persistent Red Sea security risks from ongoing Houthi attacks that have forced major carriers like Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. AIS tracking and Alphaliner data confirm January's mere 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—with further declines in February and March amid escalated threats and service suspensions announced March 1. This aggregates to well under 500 total, versus pre-2023 quarterly averages above 1,400. Tail risks include an improbable ceasefire enabling a late-quarter surge or SCA data revisions upward, though resolution hinges on official Q1 Authority statistics.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Объем
$52,387Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.7% implied probability against 1,000+ container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, reflecting persistent Red Sea security risks from ongoing Houthi attacks that have forced major carriers like Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. AIS tracking and Alphaliner data confirm January's mere 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—with further declines in February and March amid escalated threats and service suspensions announced March 1. This aggregates to well under 500 total, versus pre-2023 quarterly averages above 1,400. Tail risks include an improbable ceasefire enabling a late-quarter surge or SCA data revisions upward, though resolution hinges on official Q1 Authority statistics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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