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O previsões e probabilidades

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Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

13%

December 31

$41M Vol.

$1M today

$1M Liq.

1,286

Ends em 8 meses

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

1%

$22M Vol.

$721K today

$732K Liq.

1

Ends em 13 dias

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

93%

Anthropic

$9M Vol.

$386K today

$2M Liq.

Ends em 13 dias

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

32%

$29M Vol.

$332K today

$769K Liq.

3

Ends em 8 meses

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

40%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$9M Vol.

$271K today

$1M Liq.

263

Ends em 8 meses

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

5%

$40M Vol.

$219K today

$641K Liq.

3

Ends em cerca de 1 mês

NBA Coach of the Year Winner

NBA Coach of the Year Winner

96%

Joe Mazzulla

$2M Vol.

$100K today

$77.6K Liq.

18

Ends em cerca de 1 mês

Who will die in The Boys: Season 5?

Who will die in The Boys: Season 5?

100%

Frenchie

$714K Vol.

$81.4K today

$100K Liq.

187

Ends em 1 dia

Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

78%

$1M Vol.

$73.7K today

$7.8K Liq.

304

Ends em 2 meses

Which continent will win the 2026 Fifa World Cup?

Which continent will win the 2026 Fifa World Cup?

72%

Europe

$2M Vol.

$50.9K today

$476K Liq.

22

Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)

90%

Anthropic

$633K Vol.

$223K Liq.

Ends em 13 dias

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

23%

$2M Vol.

$92.9K Liq.

56

Ends em 8 meses

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

48%

No Meeting by June 30

$6M Vol.

$432K Liq.

Ends em cerca de 1 mês

Which company has the second best AI model end of May?

Which company has the second best AI model end of May?

92%

Anthropic

$197K Vol.

$119K Liq.

Ends em 13 dias

"In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office

"In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office

99%

<3.5m

$119K Vol.

$62.5K Liq.

Ends há cerca de 7 horas

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

62%

20-39

$94.2K Vol.

$38.0K Liq.

Ends há 1 dia

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

29%

$38.7K Vol.

$3.3K Liq.

2

Ends em cerca de 1 mês

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Which party will win the House in 2026?

78%

Democratic Party

$6M Vol.

$519K Liq.

1

Ends em 6 meses

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

44%

20+

$492K Vol.

$78.0K Liq.

Ends em 13 dias

Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?

Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?

42%

$45.4K Vol.

$5.1K Liq.

1

Ends em 7 dias

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like O.

Polymarket currently hosts 12364 active markets for O that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $172.7M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 13% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on O predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.