Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a modest 28% implied probability to silver (SI) hitting $28 per ounce by March 31, primarily pressured by the Federal Reserve's March 20 decision to hold rates at 5.25-5.50% amid sticky inflation, strengthening the USD index to 104.5 and capping precious metals upside. Silver spot trades at $24.65, up 4% monthly on gold correlation (XAU at $2,165) and industrial demand from solar/electronics sectors, but faces resistance near $25.50. Key catalysts ahead include March 28 durable goods orders and March 29 PCE inflation data—sub-0.3% core could lift odds via rate cut hopes—while COMEX positioning shows net longs at multi-month highs signaling potential squeeze.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$1,012,180 Vol.
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ US$ 125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
1%
↑ $100
2%
↑ $95
4%
↓ $65
56%
↓ $60
20%
↓ $50
5%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
<1%
$1,012,180 Vol.
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ US$ 125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
1%
↑ $100
2%
↑ $95
4%
↓ $65
56%
↓ $60
20%
↓ $50
5%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
<1%
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 2, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a modest 28% implied probability to silver (SI) hitting $28 per ounce by March 31, primarily pressured by the Federal Reserve's March 20 decision to hold rates at 5.25-5.50% amid sticky inflation, strengthening the USD index to 104.5 and capping precious metals upside. Silver spot trades at $24.65, up 4% monthly on gold correlation (XAU at $2,165) and industrial demand from solar/electronics sectors, but faces resistance near $25.50. Key catalysts ahead include March 28 durable goods orders and March 29 PCE inflation data—sub-0.3% core could lift odds via rate cut hopes—while COMEX positioning shows net longs at multi-month highs signaling potential squeeze.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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