Market icon
Tecnologia·OpenAI

A OpenAI lançará um produto de hardware de consumo até...?

Market icon
Tecnologia·OpenAI

A OpenAI lançará um produto de hardware de consumo até...?

$251,833 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$251,833 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de dezembro de 2026

$25,845 Vol.

40%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.OpenAI's first consumer AI hardware device, designed by Jony Ive's team after the 2025 io Products acquisition, remains stalled short of launch following a February 2026 court filing confirming no shipments before late February 2027. This update tempers earlier January signals from executives like Chris Lehane, who flagged a second-half 2026 unveiling as "on track," amid supply chain pivots to Foxconn, design iterations for screenless audio-first form factors like potential earbuds or smart speakers, and prototype refinements. Competitive misfires from Humane's AI Pin and Rabbit r1 highlight execution risks, with traders eyeing developer events or OpenAI updates for shifts, though hardware timelines notoriously slip.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.

Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Volume
$251,833
Data de Término
31 dez 2025
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.OpenAI's first consumer AI hardware device, designed by Jony Ive's team after the 2025 io Products acquisition, remains stalled short of launch following a February 2026 court filing confirming no shipments before late February 2027. This update tempers earlier January signals from executives like Chris Lehane, who flagged a second-half 2026 unveiling as "on track," amid supply chain pivots to Foxconn, design iterations for screenless audio-first form factors like potential earbuds or smart speakers, and prototype refinements. Competitive misfires from Humane's AI Pin and Rabbit r1 highlight execution risks, with traders eyeing developer events or OpenAI updates for shifts, though hardware timelines notoriously slip.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.

Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Volume
$251,833
Data de Término
31 dez 2025
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"A OpenAI lançará um produto de hardware de consumo até...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro de 2026" at 40%, followed by "31 de dezembro de 2025" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A OpenAI lançará um produto de hardware de consumo até...?" has generated $251.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A OpenAI lançará um produto de hardware de consumo até...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "A OpenAI lançará um produto de hardware de consumo até...?" is "31 de dezembro de 2026" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de dezembro de 2025" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "A OpenAI lançará um produto de hardware de consumo até...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.