Market icon
Tecnologia·Big Tech

A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?

Market icon
Tecnologia·Big Tech

A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?

Sim

91% acaso
Polymarket

$81,501 Vol.

Sim

91% acaso
Polymarket

$81,501 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's unbroken 18-year history of annual fall launches and recent supply chain leaks confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max debuts in September 2026 with upgrades like a 2nm A20 Pro chip, Apple C2 5G modem, smaller Dynamic Island, variable-aperture camera, and new deep red color option. Fresh reports from MacRumors and 9to5Mac in early April highlight production readiness, reinforcing this positioning amid iPhone 17's successful 2025 rollout. Realistic challenges include a rumored staggered strategy delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027, potential supply disruptions, or macroeconomic pressures that could prompt a rare skip, though historical precedent and developer ecosystem demands make this unlikely.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$81,501
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's unbroken 18-year history of annual fall launches and recent supply chain leaks confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max debuts in September 2026 with upgrades like a 2nm A20 Pro chip, Apple C2 5G modem, smaller Dynamic Island, variable-aperture camera, and new deep red color option. Fresh reports from MacRumors and 9to5Mac in early April highlight production readiness, reinforcing this positioning amid iPhone 17's successful 2025 rollout. Realistic challenges include a rumored staggered strategy delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027, potential supply disruptions, or macroeconomic pressures that could prompt a rare skip, though historical precedent and developer ecosystem demands make this unlikely.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$81,501
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A Apple vai lançar o iPhone 18 em 2026?" at 91%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?" has generated $81.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?" is "A Apple vai lançar o iPhone 18 em 2026?" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.