Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, anchored by the company's unbroken annual September launch cadence since 2007, with the iPhone 17 lineup debuting on schedule last September. Fresh leaks from the past week—detailing iPhone 18 Pro design tweaks like new colors, a smaller Dynamic Island, and enhanced battery life—signal robust development progress for a fall rollout, bolstering confidence amid supply chain stabilization post-17. While rumors of a split launch delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027 persist, traders dismiss them as unverified, prioritizing Pro models as fulfilling the release criterion. Potential challenges include unforeseen chip shortages or regulatory hurdles on advanced features, though historical precedents suggest minimal disruption ahead of the expected September event.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
$81,389 Vol.
$81,389 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$81,389 Vol.
$81,389 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, anchored by the company's unbroken annual September launch cadence since 2007, with the iPhone 17 lineup debuting on schedule last September. Fresh leaks from the past week—detailing iPhone 18 Pro design tweaks like new colors, a smaller Dynamic Island, and enhanced battery life—signal robust development progress for a fall rollout, bolstering confidence amid supply chain stabilization post-17. While rumors of a split launch delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027 persist, traders dismiss them as unverified, prioritizing Pro models as fulfilling the release criterion. Potential challenges include unforeseen chip shortages or regulatory hurdles on advanced features, though historical precedents suggest minimal disruption ahead of the expected September event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$81,389Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, anchored by the company's unbroken annual September launch cadence since 2007, with the iPhone 17 lineup debuting on schedule last September. Fresh leaks from the past week—detailing iPhone 18 Pro design tweaks like new colors, a smaller Dynamic Island, and enhanced battery life—signal robust development progress for a fall rollout, bolstering confidence amid supply chain stabilization post-17. While rumors of a split launch delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027 persist, traders dismiss them as unverified, prioritizing Pro models as fulfilling the release criterion. Potential challenges include unforeseen chip shortages or regulatory hurdles on advanced features, though historical precedents suggest minimal disruption ahead of the expected September event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$81,389Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, anchored by the company's unbroken annual September launch cadence since 2007, with the iPhone 17 lineup debuting on schedule last September. Fresh leaks from the past week—detailing iPhone 18 Pro design tweaks like new colors, a smaller Dynamic Island, and enhanced battery life—signal robust development progress for a fall rollout, bolstering confidence amid supply chain stabilization post-17. While rumors of a split launch delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027 persist, traders dismiss them as unverified, prioritizing Pro models as fulfilling the release criterion. Potential challenges include unforeseen chip shortages or regulatory hurdles on advanced features, though historical precedents suggest minimal disruption ahead of the expected September event.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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