Market icon

"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

Market icon

"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

abr 6

abr 6

abr 6

abr 6

abr 6

abr 6

abr 6

abr 6

180-190m 48.4%

190-200m 47.1%

>200m 3.4%

170-180m 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,101,321 Vol.

180-190m 48.4%

190-200m 47.1%

>200m 3.4%

170-180m 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,101,321 Vol.

<160m

$175,999 Vol.

<1%

160-170m

$154,013 Vol.

<1%

170-180m

$94,968 Vol.

2%

180-190m

$122,205 Vol.

48%

190-200m

$117,662 Vol.

47%

>200m

$436,721 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between $180-190 million (48%) and $190-200 million (46%) for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's domestic opening weekend, driven by its record-shattering $34.5 million Wednesday debut—the biggest of 2026 so far—and $59.1 million two-day cume topping the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's pacesetter. Universal's conservative $186 million five-day projection (Wed-Sun over Easter) clashes with exhibitor and tracker estimates of $190-200 million, fueled by Nintendo franchise loyalty, massive presales, and holiday family turnout despite mixed critical reception. Saturday and Easter Sunday walkups remain the key swing factor to tip the balance in this nail-biter.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,101,321
Data de Término
6 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between $180-190 million (48%) and $190-200 million (46%) for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's domestic opening weekend, driven by its record-shattering $34.5 million Wednesday debut—the biggest of 2026 so far—and $59.1 million two-day cume topping the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's pacesetter. Universal's conservative $186 million five-day projection (Wed-Sun over Easter) clashes with exhibitor and tracker estimates of $190-200 million, fueled by Nintendo franchise loyalty, massive presales, and holiday family turnout despite mixed critical reception. Saturday and Easter Sunday walkups remain the key swing factor to tip the balance in this nail-biter.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,101,321
Data de Término
6 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "180-190m" at 48%, followed by "190-200m" at 47%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office" is "180-190m" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "190-200m" at 47%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.